ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormTracker]

from what I can see the CIMSS products show little to no upper divergence and a negative lower convergence. I'm just an amateur and even just starting that but wouldn't at least one of these have to go in their respective positive directions to induce development? Which also brings me to the question have we had development of a system with the lack of these aspects?


Thanks!


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's been part of the problem for all of the month of July! Either one, the other, or both have really been non-existent! Now, the month of August should fix that!

[blp]

The area of interest west of Andros clearly now has vorticity all the way up to 500mb level and if you look at the 200mb level you can see the ULL is now south of Cuba and it out of its way. Best shot in days to get going in my opinion.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Hurricaneman]

This one bears watching anywhere from the Panhandle of Florida to North Carolina but I expect this to go out to sea east of NC

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

Nice flare up, where is everybody. You have an area that some model support for weak development right off the Florida coast. I don't expect anything more than a depression possibly but with nothing else around it is certainly interesting. I guess there is Dorian fatigue

[boca]

I wonder if its going to clip us here in South Florida or it be a near miss

[Sanibel]

Andros it was. Small burst.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest radar.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like it's moving wnw for now.

[weatherwindow]

I am going to watch for a little bit too. Have to make the 4 hour trek to Key West in the morning and want to make sure I get there safely and won't run into much bad weather. I don't like driving in the wind and rain, that is my biggest fear. Hope I don't wake up to any surprises tomorrow morning. Ugh!!

Good morning, Wendy...Just saw your post..checked with duty forecaster NWS/key west..they are upping the POPs to 40% for the Lower Keys and 60% for the Upper Keys...due to the expansion of the disturbance west of Andros...probably just precautionary..but with a preliminary motion of WNW it pays to err on the side of caution...feel free to PM me for updates as it evolves. Monroe Cty Emerg Mgmt..Grtz from KW, Rich

[weatherwindow]

Nice flare up, where is everybody. You have an area that some model support for weak development right off the Florida coast. I don't expect anything more than a depression possibly but with nothing else around it is certainly interesting. I guess there is Dorian fatigue

http://imageshack.us/a/img829/6999/2h1t.jpg

Good morning, blp...certainly time critical for development..an interesting note WFO KW is beginning to react to 91Ls potential impact in sensible weather terms...upping POPs for the Upper and Lower Keys..likely to acct for at least some earlier motion to the WNW and the expansion of the disturbance, altho this motion is likely only preliminary..Grtz from KW, Rich

[Hammy]

up to 40% and organizing as per latest NHC discussion

ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

up to 40% and organizing as per latest NHC discussion

ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

If you look at the Miami radar you can clearly see it organizing. This is getting interesting...

[fci]

It's interesting to all of us Tropical Weather Geeks!
Over the past month or so we have had a few situations where large clusters of thunderstorms have covered Southeast Florida with rainfall measuring in inches. July was the wettest July ever at Miami Beach besting the previous record by over 5 inches.
So, bottom line is whether 91L becomes a Tropical Depression or even a minimal Tropical Storm (highly unlikely; well at least a 60% chance it won't); it won't be a bigger deal than anything we have had down here the past couple of months.
Fun to watch as Tropical Weather Geeks, big not at all a big deal to the general population.
Most likely, it will have minimal effect on the mainland but entertaining to all of us nonetheless.

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the Miami aviation discussion.

VERY TRICKY TAF FORECAST FOR TODAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC IN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY NEAR THE
COAST OR POSSIBLY EVEN OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY...AND THIS HAS
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AS WELL AS RAINFALL
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Track uncertainties could play a huge role in our weather down here today per the Miami NWS.. I figured the short term track was set in stone but not quite.

THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOME 50 NM WEST OF ANDROS
ISLAND AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD TOPS HAD
COOLED OVERNIGHT AND THE MIAMI/KAMX RADAR WAS SHOWING A SOLID
AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THIS AREA, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
A RECENT WEAKENING OF THIS OVER THE PAST HOUR. IN DISCUSSIONS WITH
NHC, WIND SHEAR IS LOW OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AS
EVIDENCED BY CIMMS VORTICITY ANALYSIS, WHICH SHOWS A VERTICAL
ALIGNMENT OF THE 500 MB, 700 MB, AND 850 MB VORTICITY. THESE
REMNANTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM TODAY AS WELL.
NHC NOW GIVES A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS RE-DEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HR. IN OUR FAVOR IS ITS LACK OF
ORGANIZATION AND TIME.

ANALYSIS OF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH, OR DEVELOPING
LOW, WILL TRACK NW-N, BUT EXACTLY WHERE IS UNCERTAIN - EITHER ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE MIAMI-DADE TO PALM BEACH COAST OR
POSSIBLY REACHING THE SE FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THIS STAYS JUST OFFSHORE, MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH
FL TODAY. SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS A RIBBON OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS SE FL WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL FL TO THE SW FL COAST AS WELL AS JUST OFF THE SE FL COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN. AS THIS MOVE CLOSER TO THE
COAST, OR ONSHORE THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWATS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO NEAR
2". GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE TO SE FLORIDA, THE
THINKING IS THAT IT LIKELY WILL BECOME WET ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TODAY, WHETHER A DIRECT RESULT OF THE
REMNANTS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST (FURTHER BURSTS OF CONVECTION
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE REMNANTS TODAY), OR IT REMAINING JUST
OFFSHORE, BUT WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SO WILL BE INCREASING POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GULF COAST, WHERE CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO LESS
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED THERE.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Latest.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricane Alexis]

This is where I think there could be an LLC at or forming.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

91L looked more like a developing system 5 days go (when it had the incredibly strong MLC) than it does now.

[NDG]

It looks weak and elongated area of low pressure this morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't see what the fuss is about. Dorian died days ago. He's not coming back.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.