ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

what are the chances this doesn't get picked up? Thanks in advance.

[weatherwindow]

Unless there is some form of destruction, I can't see why this wouldn't be a TD by 11pm.

Good evening, DREW...a perfectly acceptable opinion above...IMHO, given the history of our highly dysfunctional system, this may require the impetus of another Dmax early tomorrow morning to better align the structure, tighten the circulation and further the pressure falls...so a last go at it tonight with a possible upgrade Saturday morning. That said it may be a potential photo finish with the arrival of prohibitive shear. Stay tuned ...Grtz from KW, Rich

[Steve H.]

The odds of this not getting picked up by the trough/shortwave I believe are near zero. In fact, I believe it is beginning to happen as we speak.

[Hurricane Alexis]

There's no convection north of the center and there's shear waiting for it right to it's north. I think development is unlikely.


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[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013080300, , BEST, 0, 279N, 796W, 25, 1015, LO

[HurricaneDREW92]

Unless there is some form of destruction, I can't see why this wouldn't be a TD by 11pm.

Good evening, DREW...a perfectly acceptable opinion above...IMHO, given the history of our highly dysfunctional system, this may require the impetus of another Dmax early tomorrow morning to better align the structure, tighten the circulation and further the pressure falls...so a last go at it tonight with a possible upgrade Saturday morning. That said it may be a potential photo finish with the arrival of prohibitive shear. Stay tuned ...Grtz from KW, Rich

Its gonna be a close one...break out the coffee

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looking at the beat down on satellite, Dorian better gets its act together or BONES will be coming for the 3rd time.

[RL3AO]

Upper level winds are starting to take their toll. Good night Dorian. Had a good run...kinda.

[tailgater]

The odds of this not getting picked up by the trough/shortwave I believe are near zero. In fact, I believe it is beginning to happen as we speak.

I thought the same earlier today but he has been waddling around the same area or within 40 miles. all day today. Shear is weaking to the north.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

New convection is firing directly atop the LLC. With an actual surface center tonight, this may just be the DMAX ex-Dorian has needed in order to become a tropical cyclone again.

It should start to feel wind shear tomorrow though.

TAFB came in at T2.0/30kt.
SAB came in at too weak to classify.

The ball is in NHC's court, as always.

[Hammy]

Maybe my tired eyes are seeing things but that shear wall to the north almost appears to be slowing down some.

[wxman57]

Note the south winds along the SE Florida peninsula:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/displaymetarstafs

[ozonepete]

Note the south winds along the SE Florida peninsula:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/displaymetarstafs

It was always a tiny storm, lol.

[jinftl]

watching area north of grand bahama

[gatorcane]

Mesoscale analysis showing low-level winds over FL peninsula and offshore:

[jinftl]

10pm wind reports....some sign of counterclockwise circulation to the east with these wind headings?


CAPE CANAVERAL NW7
PATRICK AFB W8
VERO BEACH SW9
FT PIERCE SW5
W PALM BEACH SW6
FT LAUDERDALE N3

[hurrtracker79]

It appears NO upgrade at 11PM EDT. No renumber....Would have been renumbered by now. Night all!

[jinftl]

maybe trying to make a run at td....not expecting more than that but heck, that would be a comeback of small proportions!

[Sanibel]

Good rotation visible on shortwave. This thing looks like it is going for it.

[MGC]

91L is convective limited on the north side of the gyre....that dry air is doing a number. Look at that NE shear just to the north of the invest. If it move in that direction it will get ripped apart. Things are not looking good for 91L this evening.....MGC