ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

0z GFS +33, Pretty broad low out there, doesn't seem to have hooked onto anything yet..

Welcome back ya'll.. imageshack hotlinking has gone wonky might I recommend the imgur extension for your browser

http://i.imgur.com/qP9v0hN.gif

Tinypic.com is also very good.

http://tinypic.com/

[ROCK]

81hr GFS

still looks split.... like into 4 vortexes.....looks out to lunch...started well though but then split apart. Unless its the shear.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif


90hr GFS

got a better look to it but seems like split lows all over the place with the main piece of energy heading to FL

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[ROCK]

NOGAPS 0Z is rolling....I know the suspense is killing me also...initialized well enough.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

here is the 0Z NAM which is just fun....does nothing with it of interest.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Jevo]

0z NOGAPS +24

[floridasun78]

look like their weak low east of cancun and west of west tip cuba but look shear and dry air got it by neck

[MWatkins]

System is very spread out at this time, and the latest GFS data, which was developing this, has backed off. Looks like a broad trough of low pressure will be hanging over FL, funneling moisture in from the Caribbean for the next several days.

Obviously, a lot can change, so still worth watching as we start the first full week of hurricane season.

MW

[boca]

Hey Mike good hearing from you, I wish you would post more.

[AdamFirst]

Bumped up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

[MWatkins]

Hey Mike good hearing from you, I wish you would post more.

Thanks for the note! I will be posting more to be sure. It's great to be out of the corporate world.

MW

[xironman]

Though its user interface leaves something to be desired the weather underground site http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ has all the Euro info out to 180hrs at good resolution. It also has parameters that many others do not such as 2 meter winds. Here it is as 91l passes Hatteras showing TC winds offshore

[GCANE]

IMHO, mid-level spin is becoming better defined over the water, north of Cancun.

Can see it clearly on 700mb vorticity and MIMIC-TPW


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor3.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[GCANE]

Had a quick, high-rain rate cell, off SW coast of Cuba, fire about 7.5 hours ago.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexdat/CONUS ... bean.0.jpg

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can' believe Alan's is paid now. That was my source, that site.

[cycloneye]

Here is a good place to find the models except the ECMWF and is Levi Cowan's models section.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?p=7371

[artist]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html
ECMWF 0z 12z

UKMET 0z 12z

ECMWF SLP/VOR (24-240HR) 0z 12z

as well as CMC, NAVY, GFS

[artist]

0Z 96 hours

[cycloneye]

The only minor change is they don't say "Development if any".

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[NDG]

91L is a mess this morning, very broad circulation with no clear main COC at the surface or at H85. Overall the surface pressures have fallen across the northern Yucatan P and southern GOM.
Models especially the GFS for the most part have been all over with timing, strength, etc, which indicates to me that if it organizes it will be of a very short window of opportunity but overall it will be a broad system, main threat continues to be heavy rains for the FL Peninsula regardless if it gets to be a TD or TS before finally moving inland by the end of the week.


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