ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here is what the San Juan NWS discuss about the effects of PR.

TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH THE WAVE
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND COMPLETING THE
TURN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN LOBE OF THE TUTT LOW ON
MONDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH NORTH
INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE
TAPERS OFF VERY SLOWLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE 2-INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST...BUT WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AND THIS RAIN MAY
EXASPERATE ANY MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY. FLASHING FLOODING DURING THESE
TWO DAYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
HIGH RISK. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF HAVING
AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALL DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
ALSO THE HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS WAVE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

[ronjon]

Starting to develop some banding features in the convection. Upper level wind shear has dropped too. This is one to watch in a climatogically favorable location.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Starting to develop some banding features in the convection. Upper level wind shear has dropped too. This is one to watch in a climatogically favorable location.

Yeah if it keeps up at DMIN we'll see what DMAX does.

[Gustywind]

Latest IR floater shot. Convection is on the increase with some deep reds showing up but is still displaced NE of the center of the broad circulation:

Gatorcane, do you think it could be a rainmarker in the Leewards, PR even if 97L may not reach TD status? What are your latest thoughts about that?

I do think it can be a rainmaker because I don't see alot of dry air around the Leewards and Puerto Rico plus I think this invest will begin to interact with the ULL near Puerto Rico in a 2-3 days that will further enhance convection. Also there is a strong MJO pulse that is arriving that should give even more lift.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thanks for your (daily, yeah ) input Gatorcane.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ HurricaneDREW92 I think you are getting a little ahead of yourself here my friend. Nobody is saying this system will be another Irene or Sandy, at least not yet.

[SeGaBob]

Wouldn't the storms moving toward 97L from the islands indicate some southwesterly shear?

[gatorcane]

Wouldn't the storms moving toward 97L from the islands indicate some southwesterly shear?

12Z GFS 00 hour current shear map. Yeah there is a good amount of SW shear around 97L (the 1012MB low east of the Leewards) and where it is heading (if you look at the future shear map charts from the GFS, the shear increases in the Eastern Caribbean in a few days if the GFS is correct):

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the map Gatorcane. I'm kind of leaning toward the GFS because it shows the shear I'm seeing but I'm not ruling out the CMC.


_________________
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Well defined rotation, looks like there is alot of west winds to the south but overall its a bit elongated SW-NE. But I do see a possible formative LLC just a tad north of 15/55 in the last hour.

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-55&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

closer: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=16&lon=-55&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[HurricaneDREW92]

@ HurricaneDREW92 I think you are getting a little ahead of yourself here my friend. Nobody is saying this system will be another Irene or Sandy, at least not yet.

Thinking differently. I was just talking about recent EC storms, though its easy to get carried away

But come to to think of it, Irene was 97L. Coincidence? I think NOT!

[SeGaBob]

Thanks for the map Gatorcane. I'm kind of leaning toward the GFS because it shows the shear I'm seeing but I'm not ruling out the CMC.

Edit: I don't know why I keep double posting so Ignore this.

[StarmanHDB]

If it helps, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters just replied to my Facebook question regarding their findings on today's flight with the following:

"found a broad surface circulation, moistening atmosphere, and still some shear affecting it"

[NDG]

Well defined rotation, looks like there is alot of west winds to the south but overall its a bit elongated SW-NE. But I do see a possible formative LLC just a tad north of 15/55 in the last hour.

I agree with you, I would put it near 15.2N & 55.1W exactly.

[cycloneye]

If it helps, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters just replied to my Facebook question regarding their findings on today's flight with the following:

"found a broad surface circulation, moistening atmosphere, and still some shear affecting it"

Here is the mission.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

[HurricaneDREW92]

Well defined rotation, looks like there is alot of west winds to the south but overall its a bit elongated SW-NE. But I do see a possible formative LLC just a tad north of 15/55 in the last hour.

I agree with you, I would put it near 15.2N & 55.1W exactly.

Agreed. Seeing same thing here.

[OuterBanker]

Ahh, the Canadian. What a wonderful model, it's as if it was written by a wishcaster.

Breathing a sigh of relief after it destroyed eastern NC and just about all of VA in yesterdays runs. Today it has shifted to offshore heading northeast not bothering anyone. I can live with that.

What is also interesting is that yesterday it was above the islands, today below and being pulled poleward in central Cuba. Then out to sea.

GFS and Euro still haven't chimed in so most mets will ignore until they do.

Where is Alyono? He sure was constantly posting it's demise yesterday. Nowhere to be seen today.

Maybe he's reading "101 ways to prepare crow"

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved Loop. LLC potentially at 15.2N and 55.1W






Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ninel conde]

Ahh, the Canadian. What a wonderful model, it's as if it was written by a wonderful forecaster.

Breathing a sigh of relief after it destroyed eastern NC and just about all of VA in yesterdays runs. Today it has shifted to offshore heading northeast not bothering anyone. I can live with that.

What is also interesting is that yesterday it was above the islands, today below and being pulled poleward in central Cuba. Then out to sea.

GFS and Euro still haven't chimed in so most mets will ignore until they do.

Where is Alyono? He sure was constantly posting it's demise yesterday. Nowhere to be seen today.

Maybe he's reading "101 ways to prepare crow"

this has a long way to go before anyone eats crow.

[Hammy]

Ahh, the Canadian. What a wonderful model, it's as if it was written by a wonderful forecaster.

Breathing a sigh of relief after it destroyed eastern NC and just about all of VA in yesterdays runs. Today it has shifted to offshore heading northeast not bothering anyone. I can live with that.

What is also interesting is that yesterday it was above the islands, today below and being pulled poleward in central Cuba. Then out to sea.

GFS and Euro still haven't chimed in so most mets will ignore until they do.

Where is Alyono? He sure was constantly posting it's demise yesterday. Nowhere to be seen today.

Maybe he's reading "101 ways to prepare crow"

this has a long way to go before anyone eats crow.

Not quite. It is increasing in organization, the low level rotation is becoming slightly better defined with a weak LLC forming, and data collected indicates that the air is moistening. There also seems to be an upper high not too far to the south of the circulation. I would personally give it about 50/50 at this point, especially if the trend continues.