ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Will the scheduled overnight flight still occur?

almost certainly it will not. Next recon tomorrow afternoon

unless they canceled the rest going to have noaa soon another AF later..

Code: Select all

1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72        FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
       A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z        A. 03/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE       B. NOAA2 0412A CYCLONE
       C. 03/1600Z                  C. 03/1800Z
       D. 23.3N 88.8W               D. 23.4N 88.9W
       E. 03/1730 TO 04/0000Z       E. 03/2000Z TO 05/0000Z     
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT           F. SFC TO 15,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73      FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 43
       A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z           A. 04/0800Z
       B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE       B. NOAA3 0612A CYCLONE
       C. 04/0430Z                  C. 04/0600Z
       D. 25.8N 89.3W               D. 25.9N 89.3W
       E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z      E. 04/0730Z TO 04/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT          F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[ozonepete]

I hear you Pete but that's not what he said unless I misread the post. I also started it a few frames ago and had to put the iPad down for an hour or so. It actually looks pretty bad ass on the last couple of visibles, even if the look is coming from the middle levels.

No problemo, bud! The "look" of a TC is a little tough to objectify anyway. All I am saying is that for a developing system that isn't even a TD yet it has a really great symmetry, banding, central convective burst and upper outflow all apparent on satellite and I don't recall seeing better for a developing system this year. Even I would have to back that up to prove my point, but I don't have time to post images of the 10 TCs we've had so far in their development stages to prove my point. So we're all good, my friend.

[Texashawk]

I will say this: it's the most cyclonic open wave I've ever seen...

[Aric Dunn]

hehe I thought today was the 3rd lol

[SunnyThoughts]

So I guess no upgrades until recon tomorrow ( if it organizes by then that is). I guess the only way the NHC would do it tonight would be if they were to get obs from a passing ship or obs from a buoy?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

So I guess no upgrades until recon tomorrow ( if it organizes by then that is). I guess the only way the NHC would do it tonight would be if they were to get obs from a passing ship or obs from a buoy?

Recon starts another mission at 11pm EDT.

[SunnyThoughts]

So I guess no upgrades until recon tomorrow ( if it organizes by then that is). I guess the only way the NHC would do it tonight would be if they were to get obs from a passing ship or obs from a buoy?

Recon starts another mission at 11pm EDT.

Ahh ok, I thought the flights listed above were for the 3rd. Didn't look at the times though..

[summersquall]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY
INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH


Great write-up.

[SouthernMet]

Structure looking alot better atm

[Steve]

Lmao amd agreed. A main point is that the season is far from over. I think we get the K storm out of this which puts us at recent average (11NS) even if still below in ace and number of hurricanes. Lots of bath water in the Caribbean which could take over as principal spawning grounds from the BOC.

For after this front, it again appears that a block will set up and that is being telegraphed by Tropical storm fitow which will crawl Then hook wnw. That should be the pattern after next Tuesday or Wednesday, so the SE US will ne open for a few days if anything else shows up in the Bahamas or Caribbean /back to 97l.

This post is NOT official.

[northjaxpro]

The structure right now looks very good. It is right now among the best looking non classified tropical entities I have evr seen.

I know 2013 hasn' t lived up to billing, but I have to admit that I would be stunned if this isn't Karen by the time the next Recon gets in there tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed the discussion did say, "STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND"

so looks like they aren't expecting to develop much even if it does get named.....Still fun to look at though.

[ozonepete]

What's notable is that all season we were saying how crappy a developing TC looked and many were shocked that it got upgraded. Now most people are saying how great this system looks and are shocked that it's not upgraded. Very funny.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah been the year of organized LLC problems...

[psyclone]

I noticed the discussion did say, "STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND"

so looks like they aren't expecting to develop much even if it does get named.....Still fun to look at though.

Recall that Ida (2009) entered the gulf via the Yucatan channel as a 100mph cane and she had little to offer the gulf coast at landfall. we all know how quickly hostile upper level conditions can demolish a storm.

[MGC]

Ida happend in November. SST are a lot warmer now than in November. Ida was a hurricane just off the mouth of the Mississippi. It did get decouple by stong SW shear. Hurricane Hilda from 1964 would be a better analogy in this case.....MGC

[ozonepete]

Numerous hot towers popping around the COC. A sure sign of strengthening...

[deltadog03]

I would say all systems are a GO. I am super curious to see if the upper anti-cyclone can keep moving with it into the GOM.

[psyclone]

Ida happend in November. SST are a lot warmer now than in November. Ida was a hurricane just off the mouth of the Mississippi. It did get decouple by stong SW shear. Hurricane Hilda from 1964 would be a better analogy in this case.....MGC

ordinarily I would be inclined to agree but this is 2013, the year of the permanent November. My point in brining up Ida is simply to state that it really doesn't matter what the storm looks like upon entering the gulf if it is destined to be eviscerated by shear. of course shear is notoriously unpredictable so vigilance is always prudent. however we've seen plenty of systems struggle over very warm waters this year so the water temp, which is always supportive this time of year, is probably overrated.

[Aric Dunn]

Numerous hot towers popping around the COC. A sure sign of strengthening...

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2103-10-022345_zpsde020771.jpg[img]

I think what happened this evening the LLC was trying to consolidate large amounts of convection developed and maintained \.. however the circ was not established enough to overcome the well established seabreeze over the land ares . it was close enough to land that the west winds a apparent circ for the first half the mission disappeared and were replaced by the east winds all of a sudden and recons last pass. This of course created a limited but large enough divergence at the surface on the west side of the circ that it collapsed. I would fully assume over night that the land breezes should help aid the surface circ development along with of course DMAX and what should likely be a large convective burst.