ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

when and how did the models initiate? Were they correct in their depiction of that actual point and position in time?

[Blown Away]

12z GEM...Through the Keys...In near Ft Myers...Out near Daytona...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[caribepr]

If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

The models show a northerly track and then a bend west with a strong ridge and that's what ike did

That's quite similar to what Hurricane Luis did before slamming into the Leeward Islands in 1995.

Shhhh

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Hwrf 12z run

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


12Z NAVGEM...changes and goes more northward than 06Z....it is the NAVGEM though...

[torrea40]

@WeatherAdvance: GFS future IR satellite shows Dorian becoming a potentially large & developing hurricane as nears NE Carib in 5 days http://t.co/cPkwO0J2TM

[Aric Dunn]

someone needs let the people in charge of the floaters at SSD they need to take it off 3 hour images

[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

GFDL keeps it a T. S.

[artist]

latest -

[tolakram]

17:45Z

[artist]

[Aric Dunn]

ALso the wnw motion is very likely do to the larger circ to its sw.. they are interacting a little .. dorian should bend back to the west as it passes to the north of the circ tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[tolakram]

Saved, Atlantic wide view

[ROCK]

GFS has always had a right bias as well as the EURO with a left bias....so just go in the middle...

12Z CMC seems pretty good for now...

[Janie2006]

She's got a whole lotta Atlantic to cover before she gets anywhere close to the islands. The wide satellite shot really puts things in perspective.....she's tiny!

[BigB0882]

What is the line the UKM is showing off the Carolina coast? Is it developing a different storm there?

I think the model consensus looks pretty good for such a distant forecast period. I suppose it all comes down to the the ridge and timing. I am thankful none of the models show this in the Gulf at this point, and the one or two that have show it recurving sharply before seeing much of it (of course, that's not making FL feel any better, lol). It is also good to see intensity staying down BUT I noticed a little something with the last two intensity forecasts. The latest one shows almost all of the models keeping it a T.S. even if very minimal whereas the package before that had MANY of the models going well below T.S. strength. That is a little worrisome.

[CrazyC83]

24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN -- Atlantic

Was 2.0 earlier. Dvorak does poorly with small storms though.

[Tireman4]

Agreed. Long way to go. Plenty of variables to deal with before the islands....


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[CrazyC83]

D.Max. tonight could be interesting. Maybe a hurricane at the end of that?

[jhpigott]

She's got a whole lotta Atlantic to cover before she gets anywhere close to the islands. The wide satellite shot really puts things in perspective.....she's tiny!

The core sure is tiny, but it looks like she has a very large moisture envelope. It looks like she wants to grow.