ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tailgater]

Right at 4 inches of rain at my house overnight and still pouring!

I'm coming back from Miami and just passed through Tallahassee storming there

[wxman57]

I'm hopeful for some rain in Texas, too. BIG squall line moved through Houston yesterday evening. Over 100,000 customers out of power. I got a whole 0.04" of rain. Many areas got another 1-2 inches. Keeps missing me by about a half mile. this system may well bring some rain to Texas by Monday. It's looking less likely it will become a TC, though. Pressure is rising at the northern BoC buoy.

[Bailey1777]

wxman57 we close to calling on Bones?

[wxman57]

I'm coming back from Miami and just passed through Tallahassee storming there

You haven't even reached the big storms yet. Very heavy rain along I-10 about 50 miles to your west (due north of Panama City) all the way west to Mobile. Be careful.

[wxman57]

wxman57 we close to calling on Bones?

He's still sleeping, but I hear him muttering something in his sleep about development chances diminishing fast...

[tailgater]

I'm coming back from Miami and just passed through Tallahassee storming there

You haven't even reached the big storms yet. Very heavy rain along I-10 about 50 miles to your west (due north of Panama City) all the way west to Mobile. Be careful.

thanks I think

[Bailey1777]

curious sat. shows convection streaming north and sw will this sw strem help or do we even hae a dominant llc for it to cover?

[Dean4Storms]

I'm coming back from Miami and just passed through Tallahassee storming there

You haven't even reached the big storms yet. Very heavy rain along I-10 about 50 miles to your west (due north of Panama City) all the way west to Mobile. Be careful.

I can attest to that, here just east of Destin. Raining hard at times.

[nautical wheeler]

Just got 12Z models in. Don't know why NHC initialized it at 20.7N/92.8W. Can't see anything there. Of course, the far south initialization means most of the models shifted south into Mexico. Appearance on satellite (with sfc obs plotted) is looking quite frontal now. Dry air flowing south off the TX coast. Frontal boundary, weak as it is, extends SW off the mid Gulf coast then what looks like a trof axis extending south to the BoC. Looks just like a frontal wave up around 26N or so. Here, take a look:

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I agree wholeheartedly with this. Thanks for the insight wxman.

It seems to me like we basically witnessed a ULL come in and rob the convection from 92L and spin around at the mid levels to upper levels for about a day. My personal opinion is that there never was anything close to a LLC developing there, although IF the system were to develop into anything substantial it would have HAD to spin down from there - from the ULL - for there to be any chance of anything substantial. There simply wasn't enough convection to do that and that ULL was already pulling in some drier air down with it anyway.

I have never seen a ULL swoop in and rob convection from a storm like that - much less do that and develop into a tropical system. However, I'm not a pro-met and it's possible this is a more typical occurrence. When I think of those small spin-up ULL's near tropical systems I think shear, not a full on take-over of the system.

Again, being a novice, this may not accurately described what happened but this sure has been a fun and interesting system to watch.

Perhaps if that front lingers around and the ULL spins itself out or moves away then there's a chance we see a completely different disturbance develop from the lingering convection. JMAO (just my amateur opinon).

[Sanibel]

Convection will burst off the center.

[Janie2006]

Still raining here in Mobile, although lighter than last night. Radar observations give me no reason to think the rain will completely end anytime soon. 92L is a complete mess.

[stormreader]

Increase in convection does in fact look like a frontal boundary. But that being said, they are notorious for spin-ups and TD formation. I would think that a 50% chance of eventual TD formation might be on the conservative side, with formation coming toward the south end (near where the old llc was located.


Amateur opinion---check NHC for all official information.

[HurriGuy]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

[tailgater]

TD soon anybody?

[BigB0882]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

I wouldn't mind a rainy relaxing weekend. If this moves NW as the NHC said it might, that could bring those displaced showers over to Louisiana, I would think. If it had come to Louisiana then all the rain would have missed us to the East.

[HurriGuy]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

I wouldn't mind a rainy relaxing weekend. If this moves NW as the NHC said it might, that could bring those displaced showers over to Louisiana, I would think. If it had come to Louisiana then all the rain would have missed us to the East.

Agreed.

[SunnyThoughts]

Steady rain since about 1am this morning here... Under flash flood watch until Sunday evening, if it doesnt end soon...afraid that may end up being upgraded to a warning. Way too much rain the last few weeks...wish we could send some to you guys in Texas.

[TexWx]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

I haven't paid much attention, but is La. as dry as Texas?

[ninel conde]

Increase in convection does in fact look like a frontal boundary. But that being said, they are notorious for spin-ups and TD formation. I would think that a 50% chance of eventual TD formation might be on the conservative side, with formation coming toward the south end (near where the old llc was located.


Amateur opinion---check NHC for all official information.

does have the appearance of a front.

[BigB0882]

Still hoping for rain here in LA

I haven't paid much attention, but is La. as dry as Texas?

I don't think so. However, I am in SELA and that could be very different as you head West towards Texas. I think central to west Louisiana is a little dry but probably not as bad as Texas. Here in SELA, I think we are ahead on rain for the year.