ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[AtlanticWind]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2013070812-chantal03l/slp.anim.html

GFDL

interesting makes it a hurricane tomorrow... lol dont see it happening

And notice the stall and strengthing in the bahamas

Bad Impacts on the DR and possibly Florida on that run.

[Aric Dunn]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFDL/2013070812-chantal03l/slp.anim.html

GFDL

interesting makes it a hurricane tomorrow... lol dont see it happening

And notice the stall and strengthing in the bahamas

yeah the GFDL is based of the GFS so the general synoptic pattern is going to be relatively the same and so since the gfs has it turn back west so shall the GFDL typically does a similar thing. though not always

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro is running

what site are you using ?

[torrea40]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Toward to the North.....

[wxman57]

I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.

So your implying there a chance there might be a stronger storm once it makes into the bahamas? Just dont see were this has a chance to really do anything If its not sinking air its the forward motion shear and even land interaction DR

I think that once it slows down, gets away from the dry air and moves past the suppressive phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (west of 65W) it will reach an environment (Bahamas) that may be more hospitable toward intensification. This is particularly true if the GFS is correct in building the ridge to its north.

And, no, I don't think it looks much better now. Center is still exposed NW of the convection. Recon should take off shortly.

[Weatherboy1]

The track is very similar to Debby back in 2000. though it will be coming in at more of a se angle than debbie. the angle of approach over DR would very likely kill chantal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debby_%282000%29

Could be one of those fast runners a la Debby. But truth be told, with some of those GFS solutions, the storms that come to mind to me are Frances/Jeanne from 2004. Both stalled in the Bahamas then eventually got turned west into Florida, though they were obviously much later in the season. We shall see!

[Jevo]

12z Euro is running

what site are you using ?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

[ROCK]

the HWRF has got some feedback issues...lol

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-vis-long.html

Toward to the North.....

See some outflow starting to happen now

[wxman57]

No closed isobars on the Euro. Has a weak trof near eastern Cuba Wednesday night (06Z THU). 500mb flow pattern very similar to 12Z GFS at that time as well.

[Alyono]

the HWRF has got some feedback issues...lol

huh? Convective feedback CANNOT occur in the core of a HWRF TC any longer. It has EXPLICIT convection

The term convective feedback has been thrown around far too often here

[Evil Jeremy]

I've got it covered Dave. I'm also going to try something new and keep the first post of the discussion thread updated with information from the current mission.

[Alyono]

No closed isobars on the Euro. Has a weak trof near eastern Cuba Wednesday night.

seems as if the EC still cannot resolve a TC in the tropics

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro is running

what site are you using ?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

yeah have that one but not whole atlantic since americanwx makes u pay now.... psu site does not show each frame as they come in..

[Riptide]

Chantal is not a coherent system on the 12z Euro, the initial initialization is not very realistic. It's drifting around near PR at Hr 48.

[CrazyC83]

08/1745 UTC 11.6N 52.5W T2.0/2.5 CHANTAL -- Atlantic

No change from earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

low level cloud deck on the north side beginning to thicken may see convection finally build on the northern half.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Dave]

I've got it covered Dave. I'm also going to try something new and keep the first post of the discussion thread updated with information from the current mission.

Sounds good, waiting for takeoff now...

[Aric Dunn]

THey not in the air yet ?

[gatorcane]

I'd be surprised if recon found a 50 mph storm, as the center remains exposed to the NW of the convection. Strongest squalls are located on the south and southeast side. With the storm moving westward at over 20 mph I wouldn't expect 50 mph west winds down there. Conditions really don't look too favorable for strengthening until the storm passes west of the DR, which is why I'm doubtful it will be weakening as it moves into the Bahamas.

So your implying there a chance there might be a stronger storm once it makes into the bahamas? Just dont see were this has a chance to really do anything If its not sinking air its the forward motion shear and even land interaction DR

I think that once it slows down, gets away from the dry air and moves past the suppressive phase of a convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (west of 65W) it will reach an environment (Bahamas) that may be more hospitable toward intensification. This is particularly true if the GFS is correct in building the ridge to its north.

And, no, I don't think it looks much better now. Center is still exposed NW of the convection. Recon should take off shortly.

Wxman57, well that wouldn't be good for folks in Florida or the SE United States if this High really does build in as the GFS forecasts with better upper-level conditions in the Bahamas with very high oceanic heat content there. NHC hasn't mentioned this possibility of better conditions by day 5 yet -- very curious if with this new GFS 12Z run they start mentioning the possibility in the 5pmEST discussion with more of a west bend into Florida for this new forecast.

Would be best if Chantal "bites the dust" over the large islands