SPAC: Freda - Ex-Tropical

[Grifforzer]

90 knots "Category 4" Severe Cyclone

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 30/0153 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 940HPA CAT 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.1S 160.7E AT 300000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. EYE
WELL DEFINED IN VIS/IR. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 3 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRNOMENT.
OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS BY NORTHWESTLY DEEP
LAYER MEAN. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.5,
MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING
T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 301200 UTC 15.1S 160.7E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 100 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC 16.0S 160.5E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 16.9S 160.2E MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 17.9S 159.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[supercane4867]

WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 160.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 160.7E

[supercane4867]

I won't call this a 100kt cyclone before the eye is in shape

[Meow]

I won't call this a 100kt cyclone before the eye is in shape

Many severe tropical cyclones in the South Pacific did not have a beautiful eye, either.

[euro6208]

Equivalent to a Category 3 Typhoon/Hurricane!


1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 161.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 161.1E


REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG WITH A 301004Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN INTENSE SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A 7NM RAGGED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM KNES, PHFO AND
PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CORAL SEA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AFTER TAU 24, WHEN A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL INDUCE
A SLIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, TC 05P WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUES TO BE ERRATIC, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 05P
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND OCCURRING AFTER TAU 48. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POOR MODEL
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Weakening

[Grifforzer]

** WTPS11 NFFN 310000 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 31/0203 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FREDA CENTRE 940HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
161.1E AT 310000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 6
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 95 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NE
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND EYE DECREASING PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO CLOUD TOP
WARMING. EYE COOLING PAST 12 HOURS AND BECOMING PARTIALLY CLOUD
FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE IN VIS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE PRESENT
TO SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRNOMENT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. FREDA IS BEING STEERED SOUTH BY DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY MEAN
WIND FLOW. SST AROUND 29 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
EMBEDDED CENTRE LG SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T5.0/5.5/W0.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC 17.4S 160.8E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 18.4S 160.6E MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 19.4S 160.6E MOV AT S AT 05KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 20.3S 160.9E MOV AT SSE AT 05KT WITH
70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Freda, Catageory 3

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 18.6S 161.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 161.5E


REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 161.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AS THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON A RANGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO. A RECENT 312256Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND RANGED FROM 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN A
STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE LLCC WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AROUND TAU 24. THIS
WEAKENING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND A DECREASE IN THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TC 05P TO TRACK
WESTWARD, AND WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS. WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND
DECREASING VWS, THE LLCC WILL REMAIN A WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM THROUGH
TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FREDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 161.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 161.9E


REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 162.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FREDA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY,
CORROBORATED BY A 010951Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION SHEARED AND ERODED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI-S IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05P IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO THE HIGH VWS; HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
48, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO DEFLECT SOUTHWESTWARD. AN INCREASE IN OUTFLOW AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN VWS WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WIDELY DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48
AND OFFER VARYING RECURVATURE SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
TC 05P WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z. //
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

It's possible Freda might follow Evan into retirement. Freda caused damage in the Solomon Islands.

Officials continue to assess cyclone damage

[supercane4867]

Freda is pretty much done with the LLCC completely exposed

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A23 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 01/1912 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F EX-TC FREDA CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.8S 163.1E AT 011800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING WITH DEEP CONVECTION DECREASING PAST 6 HOURS AND BEING
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRNOMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGRESS CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 75 NM FROM CONVECTION YIELDING DT=2.0.
MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0 FT BASED ON DT, THUS YEILDING T2.0/2.5/W2.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY MOVEMENT AND FURTHER
WEAKENING.

THIS WILL THE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC FREDA.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Freda