SIO: Dumile - Extratropical

[supercane4867]

15kts 1010mb 7S 71.5E

[Grifforzer]

Southwest of Diego Garcia : last animated satellite pictures and surface observations suggest a poorly defined circulation approximately located near 08S 71E at 09Z. Estimated mean sea low pressure is about 1005 hPa. Incomplete ASCAT data suggest 10-15 knots maximum winds in the eastern semi-circle of the low level circulation. Currently the circulation is undergoing marginal environmental conditions. Lower level convergence is indirect equatorward (due to near equatorial westerly flow), and the trade inflow is moderate (due to a weakness in the subtropical anticyclonic belt). In altitude, the easterly upper level wind shear is moderate (20 knots according to the CIMSS data), north of the upper troposphere ridge.

The last available numerical weather prediction models hold on to forecast the deepening of this low, with a general west southwestward movement for the next 3 days. Lower levels convergence may improve progressively. Up to Saturday, the limiting factor for the development of this low should be the upper level wind shear. On and after Sunday morning, the conditions may become more conducive for development as the shear is expected to decrease.

For the area south-west of Diego Garcia, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor to fair up to Saturday, and becomes good on Sunday.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 68.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES
EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
RESULTING IN DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 68.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 66.1E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 281319Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING. A 280522Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RESULTING IN DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR TO IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

could be a significant threat to La Reunion in about 5 days

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0S 62.5E TO 11.7S 57.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 292330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
61.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S
64.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 61.5E, APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 292154Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF A DEFINED LLCC. A 291734Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED A STRENGTHENING
LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS ALSO REINFORCED BY THE 291910Z OCEANSAT IMAGE. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310000Z.//

[Grifforzer]

"Zone Perturbee" 05-20122013 issued at 16:00 PM RET

** WTIO20 FMEE 291220 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2012
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/12/2012 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.1 S / 64.4 E
(TEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 450 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS REACHING 25
KT TO LOCALLY 30 KT WITH ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN 200NM AND 300NM FROM THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/12/30 AT 00 UTC:
10.4 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H, VALID 2012/12/30 AT 12 UTC:
10.7 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
CURRENT INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS.=

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
61.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED 50 NM FROM THE
LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[Grifforzer]

"Depression Tropicale" now

** WTIO22 FMEE 310027 ***
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/12/2012
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/12/2012 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1 S / 58.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 310 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 190 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT WITH LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT UP TO 100
NM FROM THE CENTER, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP
TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT .
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/12/31 AT 12 UTC:
11.6 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2013/01/01 AT 00 UTC:
12.3 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER. WINDS ARE MODERATE
TO WEAK WITHIN A 1 DEGRES RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.=

[Hurricane_Luis]

INVEST 96S

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
WTXS31 PGTW 312100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.2S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.4S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 56.1E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 302351Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 310000 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTH OF LA
REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN OLDER
310728Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS WERE NEARLY 30 KNOTS, AND WITH
RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, THERE IS GOOD
EVIDENCE THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING. A 311652Z TRMM 37H
PASS SUPPORTS THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, WITH MULTIPLE FEEDER BANDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC,
AND IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CREATING A LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR THE SUPPORT OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND GOOD SURFACE CONDITIONS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BROUGHT UP TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72, WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SSTS WILL EVENTUALLY DECREASE, BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, AS THE LLCC MOVES SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES
SOUTH, APPROXIMATELY AROUND TAU 84. BY TAU 96 VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO HIGH LEVELS (30 KNOTS) AND COMBINED WITH THE DECREASING
SSTS, WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS A SHIFTING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRINGS THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND A MID-LATITUDE DEEP
TROUGH CAPTURES THE LLCC BY TAU 120 TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 302351Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 310000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Why there're no floaters for 07S?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[supercane4867]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/5/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DUMILE)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 56.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/01 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/01/02 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/01/02 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/03 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2013/01/03 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2013/01/04 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/05 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2013/01/06 06 UTC: 36.1 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
GENERAL PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.
DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING ON 0.5 TO 0.6 LAP. NOW DIVERGENCE IS WELL
VISIBLE EASTWARD ENOUGH. SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED DUMILE AT 0430Z BY
METEO SERVICE OF MAURITIUS. LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS STILL DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE. 0300Z OBS OF AGALEGA AND 14042 BUOY HAVE ALLOWED TO LOCALIZE
THIS CENTRE.
1945Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED A WINDFIELD STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. STRONGEST WINDS EXIST AT 50/60 NM FROM THE CENTRE WITH A
LARGE AREA OF WEAK WIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRE.
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BEGIN TO CURVE SOUTHWARD AND THENCEFORTH SHOULD TAKE
A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. ON THIS TRACK, DUMILE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF
MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO THURSDAY MORNING. BEYOND SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE
SOUTHWARD BEFORE EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE SATURDAY 05.
NOTE THAT AMERICAN NWP MODELS SUGGEST A TRACK MORE WEST THAT EUROPEAN
MODEL.
LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE (VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVELS CONVERGENCE AND SST AT 28/29 DEGREES). THE UPPER LEVELS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY WEAKEN. CONSEQUENTLY, THIS LARGE SIZE SYSTEM
SHOULD DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, LOCATED UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT OF GOOD CONDITIONS TO
INTENSIFY MORE SHARPLY DURING 24 HOURS. DURING NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO COOLER SST.
ON AND AFTER FRIDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN ALOFT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE, UNHABITANTS OF AGALEGA, LA REUNION AND MAURITIUS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST POSITION.
ACCORDING TO NWP MODELS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO STAY LARGER THAN THE
AVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS COULD AFFECT WIDESPREAD AREAS.
CONSEQUENTLY, METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
WELL BEFORE THE CENTER PASS CLOSE TO COASTALS AREAS.=
NNNN

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 55.8E


REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 55.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT 12-HOUR ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 010540Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO CREATING MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POISED TO ERODE THE
STEERING RIDGE AND CAUSE TC 07S TO BEGIN TRACING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 120. TC DUMILE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE THE SOLE RIGHT
OUTLIER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z. //
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Severe Tropical Storm Dumile

[HURAKAN]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB-8v348eQY[/youtube]

Dumile already being felt at La Reunion

[supercane4867]

La Reunion radar

[supercane4867]

Peaked at 70kts and weakening now

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DUMILE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 28.1S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 32.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 37.3S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (DUMILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH A RAGGED EYE BUT HAS
STARTED TO ELONGATE AS THE BANDING TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
A 040223Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL BECOMING SHALLOW AS IT
FURTHER DEGRADES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TC 07S HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHICH HAS
WEAKENED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM DRIVES FURTHER SOUTH. TC
07S CURRENTLY LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 07S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT RECURVES
AROUND THE STR AND START TO ACCELERATE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. TC 07S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 24, AND THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS AS IT COMPLETES ETT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN