SIO: Dumile - Extratropical

[P.K.]

Down to a STS (As of 12Z).

WTIO30 FMEE 041807
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DUMILE)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 55.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 310 SW: 280 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 260 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/05 06 UTC: 29.3 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2013/01/05 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2013/01/06 06 UTC: 43.6 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2013/01/06 18 UTC: 49.2 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2013/01/07 06 UTC: 53.6 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5, CI=4.0
DUMILE KEEPS ON WEAKENING.
LAST AVAILABLE INFRA-RED PICTURES AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 1454Z
DEPICT A DESTRUCTURED CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL DEPICTS
AN RATHER WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE.
SYSTEM TRACKED NOW SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP ON
ACCELERATE ON THIS TRACK, AHEAD A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH.
DUMILE IS TRACKING OVER COOLER SST (
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS AND COMPLETE ITS ETT BY TAU 36 TO 48.
IT SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THE KERGUELEN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

[supercane4867]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20122013
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DUMILE)

2.A POSITION 2013/01/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 56.7 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 300 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM