SIO: Emang - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 81.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF A WELL-DEFINED SYMMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT ON A 120332Z ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES - ONE 07 DEGREES
TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER, 05 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS,
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION
MODELS, INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE PROJECTING THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS OF 11.8S 80.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 81.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 80.3E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 121017Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL (120 NM DIAMETER) SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 120331Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS (GENERALLY) INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131530Z.// NNNN

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 11.8S 80.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.8S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.9S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 12.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.9S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 14.5S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 15.1S 76.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 80.4E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 121521Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 121530 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT

[supercane4867]

After hanging around in the middle of nowhere for 16 days...a storm has finally formed

[supercane4867]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
2.A POSITION 2013/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 80.6 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-NORTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 70
34 KT NE: SE: 40 SW: 40 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/13 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/01/13 18 UTC: 11.6 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/01/14 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/14 18 UTC: 12.8 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/15 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/15 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/16 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/01/17 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

[Grifforzer]

** WTIO30 FMEE 130015 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6

2.A POSITION 2013/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8 S / 80.4 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

12H: 2013/01/13 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/01/14 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/01/14 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/15 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/15 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/16 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 78.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/17 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2013/01/18 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

[supercane4867]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/6/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (EMANG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7 S / 80.5 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 190 NW: 60
34 KT NE: SE: 60 SW: 60 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 79.5E

REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 79.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
140432Z ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STR. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STEERING STR RESPONDS TO A
DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120 UNDER THE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUED
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, WITH UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATING A SLOWER
TRACK WESTWARD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED AS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(NARELLE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Degraded to a TD

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-EMANG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 78.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

[Grifforzer]

Downgraded to tropical disturbance (Final advisory) ... for now

** WTIO30 FMEE 150654 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-EMANG)

2.A POSITION 2013/01/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 78.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT
DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT

12H: 2013/01/15 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2013/01/16 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/16 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/01/17 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/17 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/18 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (EMANG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 78.6E

REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THAT NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A SMALL REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES REMAINING STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BEEN
WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) AS THE LLCC IS NEAR THE STR AXIS. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON THIS
AGREEMENT THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Emang

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S) HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 15.2S 74.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
POORLY DEFINED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S. A 171506Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED AREA WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN CONVERGENT AREA. THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT
SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WHICH IS BEING
ENHANCED DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH
LITTLE TO NO OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Meow]

22.5 days... Long-lived Emang...

[Hurricane_Luis]

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Emang

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 70.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 66.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED, POORLY
DEFINED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. THIS IS
READILY EVIDENT ON A 191324Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS FEEDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Meow]

I wonder if this undead system will affect Madagascar in several days.