BOB: INVEST 90B

[supercane4867]

5.1N 85.7E

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N 84.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WHICH HAS SLOWLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN A DIFFLUENT AREA, WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ELONGATED, YET
DEFINED LLCC, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 031902Z PARTIAL OSCAT PASS. THIS
PASS SHOWS BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TURNING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane4867]

Up to 20kts

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.0N
85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.6N 86.4E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), LOOPING TO THE EAST AS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS CREATING AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (30 KNOTS). THE VWS IS KEEPING THE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT FROM BUILDING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[supercane4867]

TPIO10 PGTW 051813
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90B (SE OF SRI LANKA)
B. 05/1730Z
C. 4.1N
D. 86.1E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

CASPER

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 85.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 85.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) THAT APPEARS TO BE NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY. THE MSI
SHOWS WEAK FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. AN
OLDER 060544Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
BETWEEN 05 TO 10 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE VWS
PERSISTS IN KEEPING CONVECTION FROM BUILDING TOWARDS THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 85.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. A 070423Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE WINDS AROUND THE LLCC
ARE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS), HOWEVER, AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.