WPAC: INVEST 94W / N. Pacific Bomb Storm

[supercane4867]

15kts.1010mb.4N.137E

[phwxenthusiast]

JMA forecasting a TD in 48 hours... still looks rather elongated to me although the LLCC seems a bit better this afternoon...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Meow]

JMA forecasting a TD in 48 hours... still looks rather elongated to me although the LLCC seems a bit better this afternoon...

No, it’s already a tropical depression.

(too low-latitude to be shown on the JMA’s weather map)

WWJP25 RJTD 060600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060600.
...
SUMMARY.
..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 04N 132E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

very disorganized but bringing alot of rain to the philippines...

[supercane4867]

(too low-latitude to be shown on the JMA’s weather map)

WWJP25 RJTD 060600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 060600.
...
SUMMARY.
..
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 04N 132E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

It show up now

[Meow]

The JMA downgraded it to a low-pressure area.



WWJP25 RJTD 070600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 070600.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 04N 130E WSW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[stormstrike]

no one seems to be interested with 94W.

not surprising at all since it's very disorganized at the moment..

BUT some models have already picked this up on their runs..or possibly another invest?idk but here it is..



latest Multi-model ensemble



forecast is that it would be quite weak..could only be a strong LPA or weak depression..
of course, this may change in the coming days but might as well be aware..

and btw..94W is back to TD status by JMA..

WARNING AND SUMMARY 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 970 HPA
AT 54N 166E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 53N 169E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 85
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 980 HPA AT 59N 178E
MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 26N 128E 23N 128E 16N 111E 21N 110E 24N 118E 29N
122E 26N 128E.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1010 HPA
AT 29N 136E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 29N 136E TO 29N 139E 28N 141E.
COLD FRONT FROM 29N 136E TO 25N 132E 22N 125E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1008 HPA
AT 35N 160E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 34N 143E EAST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 05N 109E SE SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 04N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 24N 146E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[stormstrike]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.7N 127.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
LLCC. DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING, A 090906Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A PERSISTENT AND
QUASI-STATIONARY CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

could this become our 2nd tropical cyclone of the year??? no model support especially from euro...

[dexterlabio]

no model support? The NOGAPS and Canadian models were already hinting possible formation around that area for some days now. GFS was picking it up but as a disorganized low pressure system....though the recent model runs now seem to show possibility of a well-organized TC, possibly turning NW then north towards an approaching mid-latitude trough. Euro shows nothing.

Maybe I can wait for it to actually happen then I'll be looking at the Euro model then to see where it can possibly go.

[euro6208]

oops my bad i meant euro only

i haven't looked at the other models but this area seems to have a bright future if the other models verify...

[dexterlabio]

actually the ECMWF model hints possible low pressure system turning north and maybe turning extratropical by the 13th...

[Meow]

The JMA already issued the first warning on the tropical depression at 18Z.



WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 04.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[euro6208]

15kts-1010mb

it is very disorganized at the moment. there is no well defined LLCC and dvorak showing nothing...maybe this has a better chance once it passes luzon and heads out to sea...

94W FLOATER

[stormstrike]

The JMA already issued the first warning on the tropical depression at 18Z.



WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 04.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

i'm really curious how did they get the "MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER."
does not look like it..

[euro6208]

The JMA already issued the first warning on the tropical depression at 18Z.



WWJP25 RJTD 100000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 04.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

i'm really curious how did they get the "MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER."
does not look like it..

it seems like JMA upgrades every area to a TD regardless of how it looks (disorganized). without no reasoning in their warning, we will never know...We see a TD in the map and a simple text...

[euro6208]

strong shear is inhibiting development right now...but it does have more convection but still very disorganized...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 127.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE IS SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WEAK DEVELOPMENT AFTER 72
HOURS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Meow]

it seems like JMA upgrades every area to a TD regardless of how it looks (disorganized). without no reasoning in their warning, we will never know...We see a TD in the map and a simple text...

There are three kinds of JMA TDs: NTD, WTD and ExpT. 94W is the second, which means a TD with a warning.

[euro6208]

euro develops this into a weak TS before racing off to the northeast passing south of japan and out to sea...

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 127.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE IS SUSTAINING THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION, AS SEEN ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST WEAK DEVELOPMENT AFTER
HOURS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.