SPAC: INVEST 99P

[supercane4867]

15kts.1010mb.13.4S.176.7W

[supercane4867]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/2302 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 178.1W
AT 102100 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION PERSISENT
IN THE NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 99P

[Grifforzer]

increase in potential for tropical cyclone

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/2303 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.6S 178.7W
AT 112100 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISENT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF SYSTEM CENTRE PAST 24 HOURS. TD08F LIES
UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 178.8W
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHEAST OF
NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED NEAR AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WITH 15 TO 20
KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH
GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Grifforzer]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0153 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 178.7W
AT 130000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING
DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 15.6S 178.3W MOV SE AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 16.6S 177.4W MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 17.6S 176.4W MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 18.7S 175.3W MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[Grifforzer]

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
08F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 13/0346 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI AND VAVA'U
GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
179.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 178.4W, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LLCC. A 140306Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES TWO SMALL
AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE LLCC. A 132322Z OCEANSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE OCEANSAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
A SMALL AREA OF 30-KNOT WINDS NEARLY FIVE DEGREES TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NADI INDICATE LIGHT WINDS
WITH SLP NEAR 1002MB AND 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF ABOUT 1MB. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

** WTPS11 NFFN 150600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 15/0744 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
173.3W AT 150600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.20 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING DT=1.0. MET=1.0 AND
PT=1.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T1.0/1.5/W0.5/24HRS.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08F UNLESS IT RE-DEVELOPS.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
178.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 173.1W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS STARTED SHOWING SIGNS OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. AN OLDER 142125Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC WAS LOCATED
WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF AN ELONGATED REGION OF TROUGHING
WITH THE STRONGEST OBSERVED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH IS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS)
AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL (27 TO 28
CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE STEADILY AS
THE LLCC PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE STRONG VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND
DECREASING SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[supercane4867]

TPPS10 PGTW 151901
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (EAST OF FIJI)
B. 15/1732Z
C. 21.2S
D. 171.0W
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
RAPP