SIO: INVEST 90S

[supercane4867]

15kts.1010mb.11.9S.128.9E

[apocalypt-flyer]

GFS slammed this as a major into the northern coastline for the past couple of days but is now going down the Narella trajectory.

[Grifforzer]

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

A slow moving monsoon trough is strengthening over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A tropical low (1004 hPa) located near 11S 129E is expected to develop further as it moves southwest through the Timor Sea, before moving out of the region by Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Very Low

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Tuesday, or more likely on Wednesday when conditions become more favorable. Its potential for development will be monitored over coming days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: High

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6S 128.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PERSISTENT AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A RECENT 132100Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE
PERIPHERIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 131538Z SHOWS A BROAD
CIRCULATION OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AND SOME RAIN FLAGGED 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT
AREA OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS AREA, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S
128.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS REFORMED OVER 05 DEGREES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION AND, AIDED BY DIURNAL
EFFECTS, HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY. ADDITIONALLY, FORMATIVE BANDING
IS NOW APPARENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-25 KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EIR ANIMATION SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE HELPING SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE DEVELOPING
THIS SYSTEM ALBEIT AT VARYING INTENSITIES AND TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
INCREASED AND DEEPENED CONVECTION AND ANTICIPATED CONTINUED FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Grifforzer]

no development expected from the Bureau of Meteorology tropical cyclone warning center forecast from Perth

At 8an WST Tuesday a weak low was located off the Kimberley coast in the
vicinity of 14.5S 121E, moving west southwest at 20 to 25 kilometres per hour.
This low has very poor organisation and is in an unfavourable environment with
strong winds aloft. By Thursday it is expected to reach cooler waters that will
inhibit development.

[supercane4867]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
121.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE EVEN AS IT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WESTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE 20-25 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING SUSTAIN
THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE SUSTAINED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS A MEDIUM.