SPAC: Garry - Ex-Tropical

[supercane4867]

10kts-1014mb-10.0S-167.0E

[Hurricane_Luis]

ABPW10 PGTW 160600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/160600Z-170600ZJAN2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6S 173.1W
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 172.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181036Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 181034Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression 09F

[supercane4867]

TCFA WTPS21 PGTW 192000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
235 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 179.4E TO 11.6S 172.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 179.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 176.8E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.7E, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191220Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES
25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF
A RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
202000Z. //
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Next name on the list is Garry.

Garry is the replacement name for Gavin. Gavin was retired after making a deadly and destructive hit on Fiji in 1997.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 201500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 176.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 176.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.6S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 12.8S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.2S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.0S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.0S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.4S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.9S 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2W.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 192000Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 192000 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 176.0W
AT 201200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, GIVING
DT=2.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 12.5S 173.8W MOV E AT 11 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 211200 UTC 12.6S 172.1W MOV E AT 9 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 12.9S 170.9W MOV E AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 13.3S 170.2W MOV ESE AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

[euro6208]

REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 176.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND ORGANIZE AROUND AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 200952Z
ASCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF HAVE BUILT TO 35
KNOTS, AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHEAST OF
AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5 TO
10 KNOTS) WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, RANGING FROM 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES AMERICAN
SAMOA BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE
SSTS. AN INCREASE IN VWS AND INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AROUND
TAU 120. BASED ON THIS BEING THE INITIAL FORECAST THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 192000Z JAN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 192000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z
AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone 10P (Future Garry)

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
172.8W AT 210500 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
GIVING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 172.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 172.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.7S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.0S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.5S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.3S 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.4S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.7S 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 171.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT HAS NOT BEEN SUSTAINING DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS
THE LLCC HAS SPED UP IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. OBSERVATIONS AT AMERICAN
SAMOA REMAIN LIGHT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 999 MB. BASED
ON THIS DATA, THE SIZE FOR TC 10P HAS BEEN KEPT COMPACT IN THE MOST
RECENT ANALYSIS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS
INCREASING OUTFLOW AND DECREASING TRACK SPEEDS WILL SUPPORT THE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96. BY TAU 120 THE VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THE FORECAST PERIODICITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 12-
HOURLY AS THE IMPACT TO AMERICAN SAMOA APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Garry



REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 171.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT HAS NOT BEEN SUSTAINING DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AS
THE LLCC HAS SPED UP IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. OBSERVATIONS AT AMERICAN
SAMOA REMAIN LIGHT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 999 MB. BASED
ON THIS DATA, THE SIZE FOR TC 10P HAS BEEN KEPT COMPACT IN THE MOST
RECENT ANALYSIS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW. THIS
INCREASING OUTFLOW AND DECREASING TRACK SPEEDS WILL SUPPORT THE
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 96. BY TAU 120 THE VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THE FORECAST PERIODICITY HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 12-
HOURLY AS THE IMPACT TO AMERICAN SAMOA APPEARS TO BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.8S 168.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 168.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.1S 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.5S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.1S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.1S 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.0S 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.5S 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 26.6S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 167.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BE SHEARED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 230418Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED
LLCC, WITH DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS CREATING MARGINAL
OUTFLOW. TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS TRACK SPEEDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH,
INTENSIFYING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS
VWS INCREASES. TC 10P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96, COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD AND FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Garry

[supercane4867]

Up to 85kts and not expected to strengthen anymore

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 160.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 160.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.9S 158.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.1S 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 24.5S 154.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.5S 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 33.6S 140.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 160.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
FUEL THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 85 KNOTS. THE TRACK SPEED
HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTERACT, INCREASING THE GRADIENT PRESSURE ON THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
DEEPLY EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES THAT ARE REORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ORIENTATION IS NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND HAS
MITIGATED THE HIGH LEVELS (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); THE NET EFFECT CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO
THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
APPROACH AND WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING TC 10P TO
ACCELERATE ON A MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE CYCLONE; IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 96. AS TC GARRY TRACKS
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR ITS RAPID DECAY. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Well...........

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (GARRY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3S 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.7S 156.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 25.7S 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 28.6S 150.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 159.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (GARRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)HAS NOW BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REBUILD OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
260504Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LLCC
WITH A BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH AND SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON
THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO, RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 10P IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER DIVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. TC 10P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 10P
SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND UNDER NORTHWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE FLOW.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 36 AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
TC 10P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKENING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING
OF DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC MODEL
FIELDS DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AFTER ETT, TC 10P WILL PERSIST
AS A NEAR GALE FORCE EXTRA TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN