SIO: INVEST 94S

[supercane4867]

15kts 1010mb 23S 34E

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.7S 34.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SLOWLY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A WELL
ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS CREATING A REGION OF VERY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. SSTS OFF THE COAST ARE 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. BASED ON PERSISTENT CONVECTION, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS OFF THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 94S

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 37.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6S 38.8E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEAST OF CENTER. A 221530Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN
ELONGATED LLCC. A 220652Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND IS POSITIONED
JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW (50 TO 70 KNOTS), WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL AND HAS POTENTIAL TO
TRANSITION INTO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE LLCC AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP MOISTURE CORE SUFFICIENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 43.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.1S 43.3E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF THE LLCC. THIS IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON A 241540Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS. SATELLITE
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THE LLCC
HAS RECURVED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AND IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS);
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SHOWS STRONG
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE DISPLACED CONVECTION.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF IN SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 41.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 41.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BUT ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 260706Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITHIN A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH SOME
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 260705Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ELONGATED
CIRCULATION. THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS GIVING WAY TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.