SIO: FELLENG - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

15kts.1010mb.10S.70.6E

[Hurricane_Luis]

supercane4867, your image is a bit small, heres a little better one

[supercane4867]

supercane4867, your image is a bit small, heres a little better one

Thanks for the notice, I replaced it with the original size

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



WTXS21 PGTW 260930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 66.1E TO 12.9S 60.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 260523Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 65.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 65.7E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAX HAS PASSED, HOWEVER THE STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 260402Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 260523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 30 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LIGHTER, 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A
DIVERGENT AREA SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
IS CREATING AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270930Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260921Z JAN 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.2S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.3S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 13.3S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 13.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 65.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, READILY EVIDENT IN A 261102Z
SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC 13S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG
(20-30 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 13S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 13S WILL
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, SLOWLY INTENSIFYING UNDER THE
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, TC 13S WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AND
SLOWS DOWN, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 260921Z JAN 13
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 260930). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z AND 271500Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

ZCZC 788
WTIO30 FMEE 271840
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2013/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 60.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/28 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/01/28 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/01/29 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2013/01/29 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/01/30 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/01/31 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/01 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+, CI=2.5-
SYSTEM KEEPS ON UNDERGOING A SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SHOWS A
SHEARED PATTERN WITH A CENTRE LOCATED AT ABOUT 0.9 DG SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (STILL SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN).
SYSTEM SHIFT WESTWARDS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST
TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN
THE NEXT 48/60 HOURS (ARPEGE-ALADIN AND UKMO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK). OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE SOUTH-EASTERLY THEN
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
PROGRESSIVELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, AND TO KEEP ON BEING
UNFAVOURABLE UNTIL MONDAY LATE OR TUESDAY EARLY FOR A SIGNIFICANT
DEEPENING (INTENSITY SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT).
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ALOFT AS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DECREASES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINS VERY GOOD WITHIN THE SAME PERIOD, ON THE BOTH SIDES.
THEREFORE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY STRENGTHEN AND TO UNDERGO
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS
EAST-NORTHEAST.
THEREFORE FROM WEDNESDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
RE-CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE UP TO THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVOURABLE.
IT CAN BE NOTED THAT US MODEL GFS IS THE ONLY NWP THAT SUGGESTS THE
SOUTHWARDS RECURVE MORE EASTERN.=
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Remains well sheared

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 58.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.6S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.0S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.6S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.5S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 18.0S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.9S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 57.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED, IMPROVING SYSTEM WITH A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOW OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FURTHER IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT AS A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LLCC GIVING WAY TO AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING
ASSISTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20S 75E AND LOW TO MODERATE (5-
15 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL IMPROVING STRUCTURE. TC 13S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL THEN TURN
POLEWARD AND TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO RE-ORIENT NORTH-SOUTH, AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. AFTER TAU
72, NOGAPS AND GFDN SHOW THE STR REBUILDING BACK IN SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM GIVING TC 13S A WESTWARD BIAS TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. GFS AND
ECMWF, HOWEVER, MAINTAIN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR ALLOWING FOR
THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK. BASED ON THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

That is a moderate tropical storm.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Why is there no SSD Floater for MTS Felleng?

[Meow]

Sorry I am wrong..., because it is now a severe tropical storm.


WTIO30 FMEE 281900
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FELLENG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.4 S / 57.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/29 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/01/29 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/01/30 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/01/30 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/01/31 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/01/31 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/01 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/02 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS ENHANCED WITH VERY COLD TOPS OF CLOUD. 1615Z SSMIS F18 PICTUR
E SHOWS A TOTALLY CLOSED EYE ON 85 GHZ. INTENSITY HAS LIKELY UNDER-ESTIMATED AT 1200Z. IN REGARD O
F RECENT EVOLUTION, CURRENT INTENSITY IS EVALUATED AT 50 KT. ADT SEEMS TOO HIGH AT 3.9. 1715Z ASCA
T PASS CONFIRMS CURRENT INTENSITY AND HAS ALLOWED TO CALIBRATE THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCL
E WHERE VERY PROBABLY THEY ARE STRONGEST.
FELLENG KEEPS ON MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MI
D LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS THEN PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-WESTW
ARD AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTI
NG NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
1200Z CIMSS DATA SHOW A SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT AT 8 KT THAT HAS NOT VARIED WITHIN THE LAST 24 H
OURS. IT HAS NOT INHIBITED THE INTENSIFICATION OF FELLENG. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THIS VERTICAL WI
ND-SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST BUT FROM TOMORROW, BUT ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECO
ME VERY FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SST ARE VERY GOOD AT 28/29 DEGREES, WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK UND
ER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BUILDING POLEWARD. INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN NOTABLY UPGRADED.
FROM THURSDAY SYSTEM EVENING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE, A DIRECT THREAT SEEMS TO APPEAR REJECTED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

[supercane4867]

Severe Tropical Storm Felleng with a solid inner structure

[Hurricane_Luis]

Severe Tropical Storm Felleng



BULLETIN OF 28 JANUARY 10:34 p.m. LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING THE MEETING, IF ANY CYCLONE THREAT IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO KEEP INFORMED OF DEVELOPMENTS.
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM Felleng
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 988 HPA
POSITION ON 28 JANUARY TO 22 HOURS LOCAL: 13.4 SOUTH / EAST 57.5
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 855 KM AREA: NORTH-EAST
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

TROPICAL CYCLONE,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 29/01 BY A LOCAL 22H: 14.8 S / 54.4 E

TROPICAL CYCLONE,
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 30/01 BY A LOCAL 22H: 17.3 S / 52.5 E

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
POSITIONING THE CENTRE 31/01 BY A LOCAL 22H: 20.0 S / 51.8 E

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 01/02 22H BY LOCAL: 22.1 S / 52.2 E

TROPICAL CYCLONE,
CENTRE POSITIONS ON 02/02 22H BY LOCAL: 24.2 S / 52.4 E




WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

-------------------------------------------------

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TOMORROW TO LOCAL 4:30.

Translated using Google translate, so it might not make sense!

[Macrocane]

ZCZC 709
WTIO30 FMEE 290029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (FELLENG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 56.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/29 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2013/01/30 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2013/01/30 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2013/01/31 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/01/31 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/02/01 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/02 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/03 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0-
FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS, A WARM POINT HAS APPEARED SURROUNDED SUMMIT
CLOUDY STILL VERY COLD. CURVED BAND DVORAK ANALYSIS ON MORE THAN ONE
LAP GIVES A DT AT 4.0-. ADT IS STABLE AT 3.9. CURRENT INTENSITY IS
UPGRADED AT 55 KT.
FELLENG KEEPS ON MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES. 1800Z CIMSS DATA SHOW THAT SOUTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT HAS
DECREASED (5KT).
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECAST
TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-WESTWARD AND
BEYOND TAU 36 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES EXISTING NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME VERY FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SST ARE VERY
GOOD AT 28/29 DEGREES, WIND-SHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BUILDING POLEWARD.
FROM THURSDAY EVENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. FRIDAY IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEGRADING. SST MORE AND MORE COOL AND A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THEREFORE
FELLENG IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE, A DIRECT THREAT SEEMS REJECTED FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF MADAGASCAR. FELLENG IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR TROMELIN ISLAND
AT ABOUT 100/150 KM IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED ON MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO.=
NNNN

[Macrocane]

Hurricane strength by JTWC

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 14.1S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.2S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.9S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.6S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.7S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A
DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT 282321Z SSMI
37H MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A DEFINITIVE EYE WITH A FULLY DEVELOPED
EYEWALL. SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 13S
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND THE
VENTING MECHANISM LEADING TO THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE OBSERVED.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DEVELOPING POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE, OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS
ESTABLISHING AN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT CONTINUES TO
BE HINDERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE STR. A MID-LATITUDE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE STR,
WHICH WILL ALTER THE SYSTEM TWO-FOLD. THE FIRST ALTERATION WILL BE
AN EXPANSION OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND THE SECOND
WILL BE A SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AROUND THE EASTERN LOBE OF
THE STR AS THE WESTERN LOBE BREAKS DOWN. THE IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
DECREASING SST VALUES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEYOND TAU
72 WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Why so few people here? Felleng will become an intense tropical cyclone very soon.

WTIO30 FMEE 291245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 (FELLENG)
2.A POSITION 2013/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 55.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 300 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 200 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/01/30 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/01/30 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/01/31 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/01/31 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2013/02/01 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2013/02/01 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/02 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2013/02/03 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
FELLENG SHOWN A GOOD EYE PATTERN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BUT SINCE THAT TIME, THE PRESENTATION HAS
DETRIORATED SOMEWHAT. AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATE RANGE FROM 68 KT (PGTW) TO 90 KT (SAB). SATCON (AS
SOCIATED WITH A GOOD AMSU PASS AT 1012Z IS AT 85 KT (10 MIN WINDS)
CURRENT MOTION IS A BIT SOUTHWARDS SINCE MIDDAY WITH NOW A DUE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS HEADING. AVAILAB
LE NWP MODELS REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEE
P A WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN PROGRESSIVELY RECURVE SOUTH-WESTWARD AN
D BEYOND TAU 36 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES EXIST
ING NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SST ARE VE
RY GOOD AT 28/29 DEGREES, WIND-SHEAR BECOMES WEAK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (A SOUTHEASTERLY CON
STRAINT EXISTS CURRENTLY ACCORDING TO LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS OF 12Z) AND A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OU
TFLOW BUILDING POLEWARD.
FROM THURSDAY EVENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. FRIDAY
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SLOWLY DEGRADING. SST MORE AND MORE COOL AND A GRADUA
L STRENGTHENING WESTERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THEREFORE FELLENG IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE, A DIRECT THREAT SEEMS REJECTED FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER U
NHABITANTS OF THAT AREA AND UNHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREGNES ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINU TO CLOSELY MONIT
OR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ON AND AFTER WEDNESDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL WEATHER DETERIORATION IS EXP
ECTED ON MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO.

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FELLENG) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 54.9E


REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 54.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FELLENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A SYMMETRICAL, ALBEIT CLOUD-FILLED 22-NM EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS FIXED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, FIMP, AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24,
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 13S TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY DUE TO THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCED BY AN OPENING OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, TC FELLENG WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR THAT CONTINUES TO DEFLECT THE VORTEX TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z AND 301500Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

eye still open

[Meow]

Felleng is fixing its eyewall. Let’s see if this will be the strongest of the 2012–13 South Indian tropical cyclone season.

[Hurricane_Luis]

20130129 1730 -14.1 -54.3 T5.5/5.5 13S FELLENG

Intense Tropical Cyclone Maybe.



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