SPAC: INVEST 98P

[supercane4867]

23.6S 178.6E South of Fiji

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.6S 178.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED, YET WELL DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 272314Z SHOWS A
LARGE GALE AREA OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES BUT
ONLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COLD
DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH
HIGH (40-50 KNOTS) LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THIS
DATA, THIS SYSTEM IS DEEMED SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 24 TO 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM. DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Subtropical and Sheared...nice



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS UNRAVELED AND IS NOW VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. THE SAME ANIMATION
SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FIELD FEEDING INTO THE
LLCC. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING GFS, NOGAPS, AND ECMWF ALL
PREDICT THE SYSTEM TO BE QUICKLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE ABOVE DEVELOPMENTS, THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.