WPAC: Shanshan - Remnants

[Meow]

Let’s see if JMA will issue a gale warning on this system around 19:15Z.

TPPN10 PGTW 181807

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 18/1732Z

C. 5.1N

D. 127.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


UEHARA

[supercane4867]

Tropical Depression 02W

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 5.2N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2N 126.1E


REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 5.4N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND
200300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 181651Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181700 )
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST
SOUTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKLY FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISORGANIZATION IS ALSO
APPARENT IN AN 182123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, HOWEVER AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PASS DID REVEAL A 15-20 KNOT LLCC WITH
STRONGER GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED
ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE GRADIENT
WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE, WHICH IS PROMOTING
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES PAST MINDINAO, LAND INTERACTION MAY FURTHER
STIFLE THE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION. VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
CONSTANT THROUGH TAU 48, HOWEVER ONCE IN THE SULU SEA, THE FAVORABLE
SST (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FAIR OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MILD
INTENSIFICATION INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. AFTER TAU 48, TD 02W
WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. THE
ADDITIONAL VWS AND WEAKER SSTS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.
C. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. ADDITIONAL VWS
BROUGHT ON BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING IS WELL IN
PLACE, HOWEVER, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE
TO THE CONFIDENCE OF THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I was absent for school cause I am sick, though I'm feeling better now. It has been raining here in Cebu for hours!!! The power suddenly shut down then went back again. I bet it's flooding in some places.

It's quite cold for us, 24.1° C and dropping.

Rainfall in Cebu City is expected to reach 154.4 mm (6.07 inches) and gusts are to reach 41 km/h according to Weather Underground, despite no storm signal here in Cebu,

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Convection of the storm is displaced to the north of the center.

[mrbagyo]

JTWC relocated it
WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED AND ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE MSI ALSO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN THE AREA AS WELL. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS POORLY BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND POSITION FIXES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. A 190157Z EDGE OF SWATH
ASCAT PASS IN THE AREA SUGGESTS THE LLCC REMAINS VERY BROAD AND
AMBIGUOUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
THE GRADIENT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS
AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W IS SOUTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED
MUCH FARTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.
B. TD 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. AS TD 02W TRACKS
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
AS LAND INTERACTION WILL NO LONGER HAMPER THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. THE
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONSTANT
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TD 02W WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS
OF A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. THE ADDITIONAL VWS FROM THE SURGE WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM. THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PRODUCED
FROM THE SURGE EVENT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96.
LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING AND ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FROM THE SURGE
REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS. HOWEVER, OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE
INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

though IMO the "center" is now already somewhere in the Sulu Sea
I actually see 2 circulations, one in the Sulu Sea and the other one approaching the island of Palawan.. I'm a bit confused on which is the real center..

[dexterlabio]

i learned a lesson last year that the center of weak and sheared systems like this is not a big issue. the issue will be where the convection is concentrated.


i know this is a weak TD but i've read some reports in Visayas and Mindanao of strong wind gusts and they seem to be scattered.

[Meow]

i learned a lesson last year that the center of weak and sheared systems like this is not a big issue. the issue will be where the convection is concentrated.


i know this is a weak TD but i've read some reports in Visayas and Mindanao of strong wind gusts and they seem to be scattered.

How strong? If there are no sustained winds over 35 knots, 02W still won’t be named.

[dexterlabio]

^i believe those were only wind gusts and not sustained winds. the whole system looks to have multiple vorticity, and those i think are responsible for the windy conditions. Overall this is still a disorganized TD. convection is displaced way north of the supposed center.

I am checking the Facebook comments in a weather fan page, and there's someone who reported the strong wind gusts in the province of Iloilo in Central Visayas.

[Meow]

At 12Z, JMA still has not issued a gale warning.



WWJP25 RJTD 191200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 191200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 05N 124E WEST 10 KT.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cebuboy]

We have rains here for almost 24 hours now.
Weak rains yesterday but strong rains from evening to early morning today.
There are accompanying winds as well.
It's strange that it looks developing within the islands.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just want to remind everyone JTWC is not an official agency by any means, they even clearly say it on there website. Its just a agency formed by the navy that puts out typhoon forecast for Military assets.

It would be like someone hiring me and saying hey Rob, forecast the typhoon for my friends in this, this and this area. (granted they are good at it though) O look I did make a forecast map. Im going to TWC this too. Lets call it TD Q.. lol



[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2dUsDbAttc[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Another reason JTWC is useful though is that they put out a 5 day on TDs vice JMAs one day. Still not official though.. Ok, im off my soap box. hehe

[RobWESTPACWX]

^i believe those were only wind gusts and not sustained winds. the whole system looks to have multiple vorticity, and those i think are responsible for the windy conditions. Overall this is still a disorganized TD. convection is displaced way north of the supposed center.

I am checking the Facebook comments in a weather fan page, and there's someone who reported the strong wind gusts in the province of Iloilo in Central Visayas.

Farther North in Visayas there are some winds up that high, but what Ive seen its not so much the storm itself. Its the gradient set up with the increasing NE monsoon to the north. I know that sounds a little technical but not directly a result of the storm.

[dexterlabio]

a named TC in February is on its way now...


TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 20 February 2013

<Analyses at 20/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E121°05'(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°20'(7.3°)
E119°10'(119.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[dexterlabio]

Another reason JTWC is useful though is that they put out a 5 day on TDs vice JMAs one day. Still not official though.. Ok, im off my soap box. hehe

Haha that's what I notice too.


i'm excited to see this becoming a named TS. Am not wishcasting for it to become a lot stronger though. It's rare to have a named tropical cyclone in February and I think it's interesting to have one this year.

[euro6208]

maintaning TD status but won't be around for long...



1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 6.9N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9N 121.4E



REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 7.0N 120.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN


PROGNOSTIC REASONING

WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 80NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. DESPITE THE
LACK OF CORE CONVECTION, A 200031Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS RECENT ISOLATED
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TD 02W REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DISRUPTIVE LAND INTERACTION. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30
KNOTS WHEN IT TRACKS OVER THE SULU SEA BY TAU 12. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
24 THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, WHICH
IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE SOUTH CHINA SEA. DUE TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND CLOSE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[Meow]

a named TC in February is on its way now...

01W in 2012 was also a February tropical depression with a gale warning, but it failed.

[Meow]

It is still unnamed, but JMA still expects that it will intensify into a TS.



TD
Issued at 07:20 UTC, 20 February 2013

<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E120°50'(120.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°20'(7.3°)
E118°40'(118.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[mrbagyo]

too bad for Tubbataha... Crising stalls salvage operation
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/64965/crising-stalls-tubbataha-salvage