WPAC: Shanshan - Remnants

[stormstrike]

but look at that, wind shear is gonna kill it earlier than expected if this persists..

[Meow]

but look at that, wind shear is gonna kill it earlier than expected if this persists..

The correct position should be northeast of that ‘L’.

[Grifforzer]

** WTPQ20 RJTD 202100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
not much change except speed of cyclone is increasing.

southern Palawan is still under PAGASA's signal warning #1

NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 07.4N 119.4E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
(AREA Sulu Sea)

FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 07.3N 115.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
(AREA South China Sea)=

[dexterlabio]

now I'm having doubts if this could become a TS. It is way too sheared.

[Meow]

JMA stops issuing a gale warning on the system.



TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 21 February 2013

<Analyses at 21/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°00'(7.0°)
E119°00'(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa

[Meow]

Although JMA stopped issuing a gale warning, it issues a warning instead.



WWJP25 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
...
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 07.0N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[supercane4867]

TS 1302 (SHANSHAN)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 22 February 2013
<Analyses at 22/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°35'(5.6°)
E109°25'(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW440km(240NM)
SE220km(120NM)

[Meow]

I lost... This is the complete report of TS Shanshan, the first February named storm of the northwest Pacific since 2002.



TS 1302 (SHANSHAN)
Issued at 01:15 UTC, 22 February 2013

<Analyses at 22/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°35'(5.6°)
E109°25'(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW440km(240NM)
SE220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°30'(4.5°)
E104°50'(104.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N3°10'(3.2°)
E101°50'(101.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

This storm makes me want to punch something.. hehe Any how here is my latest video on it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Z7YcVv18Ac[/youtube]

[dexterlabio]

lol hooray for the named February TC. Was expecting it yesterday to be upgraded and now it happened. But boo for the moisture it left here in the Philippines. We're getting surprise heavy rains in Manila. I'm expecting only light and intermittent rains today but the rains have poured since yesterday evening.

Looks like this is the start of a wet weather as we go to the 'dry' months (March-May).

[supercane4867]

Could be degenerate to a TD in the next advisory, one of the shortest-lived TS ever

[Meow]

Shanshan, the naked tropical storm.

[mrbagyo]

fully exposed by the easterly wind shear


at last the rain stops, for the nth time, I'm been victimized again by another late class suspension...

[Meow]

Shanshan is still a tropical storm at 06Z. Well, NRL already downgraded 02W to a tropical disturbance at 00Z.

It may not make landfall as a tropical storm.



TS 1302 (SHANSHAN)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 22 February 2013

<Analyses at 22/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N5°30'(5.5°)
E109°25'(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW440km(240NM)
SE220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°55'(4.9°)
E107°25'(107.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N3°50'(3.8°)
E104°30'(104.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

[euro6208]

worst looking tropical storm ever!

dvorak for this storm never reached 2.5 (tropical storm status) and it's LLCC is fully exposed...

what are the other agencies basing their upgrade to a TS? can someone help us understand?


this is worser than NHC's upgrade to tropical storm jose in 2011...

waste of a name...

[supercane4867]

worst looking tropical storm ever!

dvorak for this storm never reached 2.5 (tropical storm status) and it's LLCC is fully exposed...

what are the other agencies basing their upgrade to a TS? can someone help us understand?


this is worser than NHC's upgrade to tropical storm jose in 2011...

waste of a name...

At least it got more convection than Jose did lol

[Meow]

worst looking tropical storm ever!

dvorak for this storm never reached 2.5 (tropical storm status) and it's LLCC is fully exposed...

what are the other agencies basing their upgrade to a TS? can someone help us understand?


this is worser than NHC's upgrade to tropical storm jose in 2011...

waste of a name...

JMA upgrades a storm when it reaches CI2.0, so Shanshan comes. Moreover, wind vector fields proved that Shanshan should be a tropical storm.

You could take a look at Sarika and Tokage in 2011, and they were fully exposed. I guess JMA likes naked storms.

[euro6208]

worst looking tropical storm ever!

dvorak for this storm never reached 2.5 (tropical storm status) and it's LLCC is fully exposed...

what are the other agencies basing their upgrade to a TS? can someone help us understand?


this is worser than NHC's upgrade to tropical storm jose in 2011...

waste of a name...

JMA upgrades a storm when it reaches CI2.0, so Shanshan comes. Moreover, wind vector fields proved that Shanshan should be a tropical storm.

You could take a look at Sarika and Tokage in 2011, and they were fully exposed. I guess JMA likes naked storms.

I would like to see (probrably many) this wind vector fields that you mention? any link to that when 02W was *upgraded*?

no proof at all this is a TS but prove otherwise...

[Meow]

I would like to see (probrably many) this wind vector fields that you mention? any link to that when 02W was *upgraded*?

no proof at all this is a TS but prove otherwise...

Yes, Shanshan has winds around 30 to 35 knots but not very close to its centre. Also, JMA adopts ship observations, but I can’t be sure if it uses that method this time.

By the way, I have uploaded the naked picture of Shanshan to Wikimedia Commons.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Shanshan_2013-02-22.jpg



The sexy and naked Asian girl, Shanshan.

[euro6208]

lol...barely any showing 35 knot winds or higher...even Jose has winds of over 35 knot winds...

no ship observation, no ground observation...

it's location close to populated landmasses in SE asia is probrably why it was upgraded...

poor upgrade...