SIO: HARUNA - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

19.0S 42.3E

[supercane4867]

Convective activity remains fluctuating but locally strong in the Mozambique Channel between 15S
and 20S. This activity should persist within the next days. From Saturday, most of available
models begin to deepen a low within this area due to better low level convergence and a good upper
level divergence under axis of high tropospheric ridge.
For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for development of an other tropical depression.
Beyond, potential becomes poor to fair in the Mozambique Channel.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.9S 39.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 150505Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
WEAK BANDING TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EQUATORWARD FURTHER UNDER THE STR WITH DECREASING VWS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.9S
39.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 39.8E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 151436Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED
SHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
JUST POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER WEAK
TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EQUATORWARD FURTHER UNDER THE STR WITH
DECREASING VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
37.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 38.4E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS LOCATED OVER MOZAMBIQUE.
THE LLCC IS TRACKING EASTWARD, HEADING TOWARD THE OPEN WATER OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE IR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS
SUGGEST THAT TIGHT TURNING OVER THE CHANNEL MAY BE CONSOLIDATING
AND FORMING A NEW LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MODERATE (20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED BANDING AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
38.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 39.9E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AS EVIDENCED
ON A 171535Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT
WITH VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE SUSTAINED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 180130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 235 NM RADIUS OF 19.1S 39.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
39.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 40.0E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS THAT ARE CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTER
INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK; HOWEVER, MODERATE (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
DISPLACING THE MAIN CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ALBEIT WITH
VARYING TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190130Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180121Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 41.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 41.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.6S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.2S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 22.5S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.3S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.6S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.3S 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 41.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED IR LOOP AND A
182254Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS, WITH A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST. A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AFTER TAU 48, ADDING ADDITIONAL
VWS AND AMPLIFYING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ACCELERATE THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM UNREASONABLY STATIONARY DESPITE THE PASSING TROUGH. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 180121Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21
PGTW 180130). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

No one noticed that this has already been Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna since 06Z.

Come on, this will be a tropical cyclone and make landfall over Madagascar.

WTIO30 FMEE 191241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/20 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/02/20 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/02/21 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2013/02/21 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2013/02/22 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2013/02/22 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/23 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/02/24 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
LATEST VIS AND MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT HARUNA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANISED, WITH SOME GOOD VORTICITY AND SOME BULDING INNER-CORE
FEATURES ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER LARGE RMW.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY EAST TO
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH OF 30S.
IF THAT PHILOSOPHY SEEMS APPROVED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAINS IN CHRONOLOGY AND CAP VARIATION ...
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SYSTEM MEMBERS ARE ALL GLOBALLY ORIENTED NEAR THIS
FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR ... AND THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE TRACKS.
OVER HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SEAS (29/30 DEGREES CELCIUS) AND UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL.THE SLOW TRACK EXPECTED BY RSMC SHOULD HOWEVER LIMIT
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO NEGATIVE OCEANIC RETRO-ACTION BY COOLING
WATER SURFACE.
HARUNA PRESENTS A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT HIT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
CURRENTLY, COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND SOUTHWARDS TO CAP
SAINTE-MARIE IS THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. UNHABITANTS OF THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND STAY TUNED WITH
INFORMATIONS PROVIDED BY THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.=

[cycloneye]

No one noticed that this has already been Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna since 06Z

The member who made this thread nor any moderators have not been here to edit the title but is now edited.

[euro6208]

nearing cyclone strength


WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.3S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 21.9S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 22.3S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.8S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 27.0S 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.4S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 40.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 200023Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM
MOTION HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND APPEARS TO BE LOOPING. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) HAS WEAKENED DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY AND
ERRATICALLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SLOW TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). TC 16S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION NEAR TAU 72, THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
120. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIROMENT AND
UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE TO
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Moisture inflow related to this storm has now been blamed for over 100 deaths in Mozambique. Such sad news.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[supercane4867]

It must be at cyclone strength now

[Macrocane]

ZCZC 037
WTIO30 FMEE 201247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 40.9 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/21 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2013/02/21 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2013/02/22 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/02/22 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/02/23 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2013/02/23 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 46.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/24 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/02/25 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-
NOW AN EYE IS WELL VISIBLE ON CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. HARUNA HAS REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS STILL VERY LARGE. NEAR GALE AND GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSIONS
HAVE BEEN CALIBRATED WITH 0648Z METOP ASCAT PASS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. BEYOND, MOST OF A
VAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK UNDER T
HE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH OF 30S AND A STRENGTHENING RIDG
E IN THE NORTH-EAST, BUT RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN CHRONOLOGY AND CAP VARIATIONS. G
FS FORECAST A MOST SOUTH TRACK AND CONSEQUENTLY DOES TO TRANSIT THE SYSTEM OVERSEA NEAR POINT SOUT
H-WEST OF MADAGASCAR.
RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE TRACKS FOR THIS PORTION BEFORE
THE LANDFALL.
OVER HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SEAS (29/30 DEGREES C) AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EX
PECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL THAT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
HARUNA PRESENTS AN IMPORTANT THREAT FOR THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR THAT SHOULD BE TO I
MPINGE WITHIN THE NEXT 2/3 DAYS. CURRENTLY, COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE IS
THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. INHABITANTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND STAY TUNED WITH INFORMATIONS PROVIDED BY THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERSEA FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO KEEP A EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD TR
ACK WITHOUT NOTABLE RE-INTENSIFICATION DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING UNFAVOURABLE (STRO
NG NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST).
NNNN

[mpic]

Thank you so much for the posts on the storm as I have intersts in South Africa. Last year's cyclone in January was devastating.

[Grifforzer]

Dvorak 5.0 yielding 80 knots (10 min). Forecast to intensify further into an intense tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours..

WTIO30 FMEE 201846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 41.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :59 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/21 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2013/02/21 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2013/02/22 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2013/02/22 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
60H: 2013/02/23 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 46.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2013/02/23 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/24 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/02/25 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.0+
HARUNA IS INTENSIFYING AND SHOW NOW A WIDE BUT VERY WELL DEFINED EYE
(DIAMETER AROUND 65 NM). DEFINITION OF THE EYE IS IMPROVING SINCE 1630Z.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 3 HOURS MANUAL DVORAK AVERAGE
AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF LATEST AVAILABLE INTENSITY ANALYSIS
(KNES AT 90 KT, PGTW AT 79 KT, ADT AT 87 KT AT 18Z AND SATCON AT 71 KT AT 14Z).
HARUNA IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 70 KM EAST OF EUROPA. THE SMALL ISLAND WENT
THROUGH THE EYEWALL BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. TOP GUSTS REACHED 78 KT NEAR
1430Z (MAX 10 MIN WINDS AT 47 KT NEAR 12Z) AND MSLP REACHED A MIN AT 981.2
HPA NEAR 14Z.
WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OR QUASI-STAT.
BEYOND, MOST OF AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR A
GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING
SOUTH OF 30S AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST, BUT RATHER
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN CHRONOLOGY AND CAP VARIATIONS.
RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE LATEST ECMWF OUTPUTS (NOT TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT HERE) DELAYED THE TIME OF LANDFALL (FRIDAY EVENING OR FRIDAY
NIGHT).
OVER HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SEAS (29/30 DEGREES C) AND UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24/36
HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL THAT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE, A TEMPORARILY WEAKENING TREND COULD
OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SYSTEM SELF-INDUCED COOL
WATERS ..
HARUNA PRESENTS AN IMPORTANT THREAT FOR THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR THAT SHOULD BE TO IMPINGE WITHIN THE NEXT 2/3 DAYS.
CURRENTLY, COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE IS THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. INHABITANTS OF THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND STAY TUNED WITH INFORMATIONS PROVIDED BY
THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERSEA FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO
KEEP A EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK WITHOUT NOTABLE RE-INTENSIFICATION
DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING UNFAVOURABLE (STRONG
NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR AND COOLER SST).

[Meow]

Haruna looks special.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cylcone Haruna

[Macrocane]

WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (HARUNA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 22.3S 41.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 41.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.4S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.3S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.7S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 25.8S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.5S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.9S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 42.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (HARUNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 16S IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE,
UNDER THE AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S HAS BEEN TRACKING IN A GENERAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE
INTERACTION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A
BUILDING EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF TC 16S WILL SHIFT THE
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING INTERACTION WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
TO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A FULLY
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 96. THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT THERE IS A LARGE VARIABILITY
FROM TAU 96 AND BEYOND. BASED ON THE FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND
221500Z.//
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

According to Weather Underground, the island of Europa recorded a pressure of 982mb and sustained winds of 52mph (around 45KT).

It's possible pressure could have been lower and winds higher. However, Europa's weather station only updates every 12 hours.