SIO: INVEST 98S

[supercane4867]

12.5S 116.4E

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 98S

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
116.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATEST PGTW
GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. NUMERIC
MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, ECMWF, AND GFS ARE INTENSIFYING THIS SYSTEM
IN 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.