SIO: INVEST 98S

[supercane4867]

13.5S 102.3E

[jaguarjace]

MAR 20 1532 UTC - MAR 21 0632 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 9:16 pm WST Thursday 21 March 2013.



Remarks:
A Tropical Low was located at 8 pm WST near 14.1S 95.6E,
that is 250 km south southwest of Cocos Island and moving west at 15 kilometres
per hour. This system is moving away from the Cocos Islands and will have no significant
wind impact on the islands.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 2:28 pm WST Friday 22 March 2013.



Remarks:
This system is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone but gales may still occur in the southern quadrants.

MAR 21 1532 UTC - MAR 22 0532 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
92.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EVIDENT IN A 222044Z TRMM IMAGE. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGRESSING
POLEWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A STEERING RIDGE TO THE
EAST AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FALLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH
STRONGER WINDS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETRY DATA WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 222230) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.