SIO: VICTORIA - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

7.0S 96.0E 

[supercane4867]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
WTXS32 PGTW 090300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 11.6S 102.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 102.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.1S 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.7S 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.2S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.8S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.2S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.5S 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 102.3E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 082221Z APR 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 082230 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0144 UTC 09/04/2013
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 11.5S
Longitude: 102.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [165 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/1200: 13.2S 103.0E: 055 [100]: 040 [075]: 994
+24: 10/0000: 14.4S 103.5E: 080 [145]: 050 [095]: 987
+36: 10/1200: 15.6S 104.0E: 100 [180]: 045 [085]: 991
+48: 11/0000: 16.9S 104.7E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 996
+60: 11/1200: 18.5S 105.1E: 140 [255]: 030 [055]: 1000
+72: 12/0000: 20.7S 105.8E: 155 [290]: 030 [055]: 1000
REMARKS:
17U has shown signs of development during the overnight period. The centre was
located using microwave imagery, particularly the Windsat 1119UTC, TC_SSMIS
1349UTC and TC_SSMIS 2244UTC images.

Dvorak T1.0 was estimated at 0600UTC 8 April. 0.3 - 0.4 curved band wraps
overnight yielded DTs up to 2.5 [but FT constrained]. FT/CI now set to 2.5.

CIMSS shear at 0000UTC 9 April showed 17U to be under 10 to 20 knots of
generally easterly wind shear.

SSTs and Ocean Heat Potential are conducive for development and there is good
poleward outflow due to an approaching upper level trough. Conditions should
remain favourable for the next 24 hours or so.

The system is expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone about 1200UTC 9 April
and reach category 2 intensity overnight. During Wednesday and particularly
Thursday, northerly wind shear is forecast to increase and with lower SSTs the
system should weaken.

General south to southeast motion is expected under the influence of an upper
level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough.

The system is not expected to impact Cocos or Christmas Island or the Western
Australian mainland. Moderate to heavy rain is possible over Christmas Island
until Thursday.

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 09/04/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Victoria
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 102.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 09/1800: 13.9S 103.4E: 045 [080]: 050 [095]: 990
+24: 10/0600: 15.3S 104.1E: 070 [130]: 060 [110]: 983
+36: 10/1800: 16.5S 104.7E: 090 [165]: 055 [100]: 986
+48: 11/0600: 18.2S 105.3E: 110 [200]: 045 [085]: 992
+60: 11/1800: 20.0S 105.8E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 1002
+72: 12/0600: 22.7S 106.3E: 145 [270]: 030 [055]: 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Victoria has developed over open waters, well away from Cocos
and Christmas Islands.

Microwave imagery overnight showed a small and tight circulation with deep
convection wrapping around the low level circulation centre [LLCC]. The vortex
was tilted due to northeast wind shear. During Tuesday the system has steadily
intensified. A curved band wrap of 0.6 to 0.7 on visible imagery yielded DTs of
3.0 between 0300 and 0600 UTC. Given the initial Dvorak T1.0 classification was
made at 0600UTC 8 April, the FT constraint [24hrs after initial T1.0, storm's
T-No must be <= T2.5] is being broken. Given the small size of the system and
potential for rapid development, this seems appropriate. FT/CI set to 3.0.

Tropical Cyclone Victoria was located using microwave and visible satellite
imagery, in particular the TRMM 0221 UTC image.

CIMSS shear at 0600UTC showed between 10 and 20 knots of northeast wind shear.

SSTs and Ocean Heat Potential are conducive for development and there is good
poleward outflow due to an approaching upper level trough. Conditions should
remain favourable for the next 24 hours or so.

The system is forecast to reach category 2 intensity overnight. Late Wednesday
and particularly Thursday, northwest wind shear is forecast to increase and with
lower SSTs the system should weaken.

General south to southeast motion is expected under the influence of an upper
level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough.

The system is not expected to impact Cocos or Christmas Island or the Western
Australian mainland. Moderate to heavy rainfall and squally conditions are
possible over Christmas Island until Thursday due to the outermost rain bands.

[Extratropical94]

45 knots by JTWC

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (VICTORIA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.3S 102.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 102.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.9S 102.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.3S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.9S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.8S 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 23.4S 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.2S 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 102.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (VICTORIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 091121Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 22S IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC VICTORIA
WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO LOW VWS AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE
ITS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT BUT WITH VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF DISSIPATION AND
THE RESULTANT WESTWARD TURN OF THE REMNANT LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND
101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Severe Tropical Cyclone Victoria
Issued at 3:10 pm WST Wednesday 10 April 2013.



Remarks:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Victoria is not expected to affect Cocos or Christmas Islands or the Western
Australian mainland. The system will continue to move over open waters and begin to weaken during Thursday.
---

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APR 09 1532 UTC - APR 10 0532 UTC Floater Loops:
>WATER VAPOR Enhancement
>RGB Enhancement
>RAINBOW Enhancement
>RBTOP Enhancement

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria
Issued at 2:40 am WST Friday 12 April 2013.



Remarks:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Victoria has weakened over open waters well to the west of the Western Australian
mainland.
---

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