BOB: INVEST 91B

[supercane4867]

2.8N 83.6E

[cycloneye]

Slowly consolidating.

[mrbagyo]

GFS is developing this system, they are showing it consistently in their past runs.

[Alyono]

of all of the models, the ECMWF is the least enthusiastic about this system. It seems to be an outlier in this case

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.9N 77.3E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 76.1E APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS ENHANCED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051509Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 050428Z
ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
INDIA INDICATE A BROAD LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE VALUES AS LOW AS 1005 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.