EPAC: ALVIN - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

SHIPS in love with this thing. WOW check this out from today's 18Z analysis:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 89% is 7.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 33% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 33% is 10.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

LGEM really cranks it up too in 4-5 day range:



The above image is from Dr. Brian Tang's page from UAlbany

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/ep902013/

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 151902
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1902 UTC WED MAY 15 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (EP012013) 20130515 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130515 1800 130516 0600 130516 1800 130517 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 104.6W 9.2N 107.2W 9.6N 109.3W 9.9N 111.1W
BAMD 8.5N 104.6W 8.8N 106.2W 9.1N 107.5W 9.6N 108.6W
BAMM 8.5N 104.6W 8.9N 106.4W 9.2N 107.9W 9.5N 109.0W
LBAR 8.5N 104.6W 9.0N 106.5W 9.6N 108.7W 10.4N 111.1W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130517 1800 130518 1800 130519 1800 130520 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 112.4W 10.2N 114.5W 10.1N 115.8W 10.7N 115.8W
BAMD 10.1N 109.7W 11.7N 112.0W 14.0N 113.6W 17.9N 113.6W
BAMM 10.0N 110.1W 11.4N 112.3W 13.1N 113.7W 16.2N 113.5W
LBAR 11.3N 113.5W 14.2N 117.3W 18.4N 118.7W 24.1N 119.2W
SHIP 66KTS 74KTS 60KTS 40KTS
DSHP 66KTS 74KTS 60KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 104.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 7.8N LONM12 = 102.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 99.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Very interesting to note that the GEM/CMC model made a coup as it was the first model to develop Alvin on May 5th 12z run. GFS came in as the second model.

This is the first run by GEM/CMC on May 5th.