EPAC: INVEST 91E

[Hurricane_Luis]

Train of three now, one south of El Salvador the other two south of Mexico.

[MGC]

One south of El Salvador is showing some spin....I'm thinking it might develop......MGC

[Hurricane Andrew]

EPAC wave train looking healthy.

[hurricanexyz]

i think i remember seeing that gfs is showing to third one turning into a cyclone

[hurricanexyz]

but i looked at the gfs again and nothings there now

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...THE LOW IS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[supercane4867]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kingarabian]

1. SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Kingarabian]

More convection, more convection!

[supercane4867]

TCFA


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 292200
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 114.0W TO 13.9N 107.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 112.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 302200Z.
//

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY-
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...LOCATED INLAND IN MEXICO OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

[supercane4867]

TXPZ22 KNES 300001
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 29/2345Z

C. 13.1N

D. 112.4W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[cycloneye]

Is over for 91E.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARBARA...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO
NOT FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[Kingarabian]

Too bad... It had a very sexy LLC.

[greenkat]

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BARBARA...LOCATED NEAR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Too bad

[cycloneye]

Hasta la vista!

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