EPAC: INVEST 91E

[cycloneye]

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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013052212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912013
EP, 91, 2013052112, , BEST, 0, 99N, 960W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052200, , BEST, 0, 101N, 980W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052206, , BEST, 0, 102N, 990W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052212, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1000W, 15, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1703 UTC WED MAY 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912013) 20130522 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130522 1200 130523 0000 130523 1200 130524 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.3N 100.0W 10.5N 100.9W 10.8N 102.1W 11.2N 103.6W
BAMD 10.3N 100.0W 10.9N 101.0W 11.5N 101.9W 12.3N 103.0W
BAMM 10.3N 100.0W 10.9N 101.1W 11.4N 102.3W 12.0N 103.6W
LBAR 10.3N 100.0W 10.9N 101.4W 11.8N 102.8W 12.8N 104.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130524 1200 130525 1200 130526 1200 130527 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 105.1W 12.4N 109.1W 13.1N 113.7W 13.4N 118.5W
BAMD 13.1N 104.0W 14.6N 106.4W 15.2N 109.2W 14.7N 112.6W
BAMM 12.5N 104.9W 13.5N 108.0W 14.1N 112.2W 13.9N 116.9W
LBAR 13.9N 106.0W 16.3N 109.3W 18.4N 111.5W 19.1N 113.0W
SHIP 34KTS 37KTS 36KTS 37KTS
DSHP 34KTS 37KTS 36KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.3N LONCUR = 100.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 98.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 96.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

It didn't last long. Maybe comes back later.

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[Hurricane Jed]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222331
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Hurricane Jed]

Still out there apparently

[cycloneye]

Is back.

EP, 91, 2013052300, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1018W, 20, 1009, DB

[Hurricaneman]

I don't think this is going to become a tropical cyclone, no model support

[supercane4867]

I don't think this is going to become a tropical cyclone, no model support

Actually there's NAVGEM support it

[jaguarjace]

10.4N 101.8W

[Hurricane Jed]

Looks like its trying to get some spin on it.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

I don't think this is going to become a tropical cyclone, no model support

Most EPAC invests develop.

[Hurricane Jed]

But not all. Its not a guaranteed rule of thumb.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Hurricane Jed]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricane Jed]

Looking mighty ugly this morning

[Hurricane Jed]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241149
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM NEAR THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH WEAK CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND WEST OF COSTA RICA... NEITHER OF
THESE SYSTEMS IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

So wait... this invest is down to 20%? Oh COME ON BARBARA! Stop playing with those Barbies AND FORM!
"AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FAR PACIFIC NW REGION
OF THE U.S. SW TO JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA
...AND EXTENDS SSW TO NEAR 14N110W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE
NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA AT 12N125W...AND
OVER GUATEMALA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
ANTICYCLONES COVERS THE AREA W OF THE ERN TROUGH...AND ALSO SE
OF THE SAME TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN ACTIVE.
UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS SEEN
STREAMING NW AROUND BOTH ANTICYCLONES. THE UPPER TROUGH JUST NW
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NE AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS
BY LATE SUN INTO MON.

MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS SEEN NOTED WITHIN ABOUT 700 NM SW OF THE
TROUGH ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALSO TO ITS NE. THIS IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A STABLE AND RATHER DRY AIR MASS
WITH ONLY STRATOCUMLUS TYPE CLOUDS NOTED TO THE N OF THE
TROPICAL REGION OF THE AREA MAINLY N OF 13N AND W OF 116W.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EVIDENT N OF 13N E OF 116W. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TODAY REACHING THE NW PART OF MEXICO AS
ANOTHER AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE FAR NW
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE AREA AT
37N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 32N136W TO NEAR 21N116W.
THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE
WRN U.S. CONTINUES TO RESULT IN STRONG NW-N WINDS JUST N OF THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS THERE UP TO AROUND 11 FT. THE ASCAT
PASS FROM JUST PAST 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON REVEALED NE TRADES OF
15-20 KT OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM N OF THE ITCZ TO
NEAR 24N AND W OF ABOUT 128W. THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS FROM 1626
UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH FROM NEAR 02N TO 07N AND BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES ADVECTING NWD IN THIS WIND
FLOW TOWARDS THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE LOW PRES FEATURE NEAR
08N88W DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS SLOWLY
GAINING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MOIST SLY FLOW OF 10-
15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH...IT IS POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THAT IT
MAY ATTAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SPIN UP INTO A MORE DEFINITIVE
LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS IT DRIFTS WWD. SEE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS RELATING TO
THIS LOW PRES FEATURE.

STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE A
BRIEF GAP WIND EVENT LASTING ONLY ABOUT 6-9 HOURS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY ON SUN WITH N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND
SEAS TO 8 FT. NE-E WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE
TO THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MOST
PROBABLY ATTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG OVER THE FAR
ERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH.

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 16-18 SECONDS DOMINATE
MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W...WHILE LONG PERIOD MIXED
SWELLS ARE LOCATED IN THE NRN PORTION. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUN.

$$
AGUIRRE"

[Yellow Evan]

1. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.