EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[supercane4867]

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201305260621
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013052606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922013
EP, 92, 2013052606, , BEST, 0, 114N, 912W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

This system will have big implications to the Mexican coast as it will be close as it moves WNW and possibly make landfall. It looks like copious amounts of rain to the region is the main threat unless this blows into a hurricane and then is rain and wind.

[cycloneye]

92E is in the beginning stage to start the organizing proccess.

[supercane4867]

GFS says we'll have Huricane Barbara and potential Cosme by Wednesday...

[MGC]

There has been some weak spin associated with this disturbance for a day or two. Convection need to get a bit more concentrated before 92E can take off. I think the chance of development are good.......MGC

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[hurricanexyz]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_epac/epac_overview.gif
only a 30% chance of developing right now but its going to get higher

[Yellow Evan]

Let's hope there is little damage to MX.

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SITUATED NEAR
12N94W...OR WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING SLOWLY NW. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER TIGHT AND
SMALL CIRCULATION AS SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM OF HE
LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS UNDERNEATH THE SW PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO...IT APPEARS THE LOW HAS ATTAINED MORE MOMEMTUM
IN TERMS OF VORTICITY AS IT CONTINUES PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY CONDITIONS
RELATING TO THIS LOW.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

When do you all think this is gonna form? Tomorrow is that pushing it?

[lester]

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 27 2013


BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 13N95W...OR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BANDING
FEATURE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SEVERAL
DAYS OF PERSISTENTLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MEETING THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT
AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[Hurricane Jed]

Who's that sexy invest



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[Yellow Evan]

Looking better and better.

[dexterlabio]

that Alvin was a tease, I wonder if this thing will be an interesting system. It kinda sucks tho that it could affect the MX coast with its proximity to land.

[MGC]

Convection really increased overnight. Spin is really evident in the last few frames of the sat loop. Chances increasing.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[cycloneye]

Organizing at a faster rate.