ATL: INVEST 90L

[sweetpea]

Aric Dunn nailed it.

I am a lurker, don't post much at all. I just read and try to understand. But Aric usually does nail it, I find myself looking for his posts to keep learning. Sorry about the off topic, will go back to lurking.

[bahamaswx]

This thing has dumped an incredible amount of rain over the Bahamas in the past 10 days or so. Most islands are heavily flooded.

[NDG]

The 18z Surface Analysis by TAFB has NEW meaning that they will add at 00z a low pressure near that red x location just off Yucatan's north coast.

I really disagree with TAFB about a low pressure forming there this evening, there is nothing but SE winds in that area.
The low pressure is forming over the Yucatan Peninsula, it will not move out into the Yucatan Channel/Southern GOM until at least tomorrow or tomorrow night.

[Hurricaneman]

the TAFB area there is no low there, its over the center of the Yucatan or its just 25 miles NE of the tip of the Yucatan, those are the suspect areas as far as at least a mid level vorticity with maybe a surface low so its broad and still needs more organization to be a tropical cyclone

[pgoss11]

Aric Dunn nailed it.

Doesn't he always!

[pgoss11]

Aric Dunn nailed it.

Doesn't he always!

[Hurricaneman]

I think I see a possible low at 20N 88W

[NDG]

I think I see a possible low at 20N 88W

I agree, that's aproximately where I see it also, and that's where the lowest surface pressures are found with surface winds across the northern Yucatan P coast from the east. If a surface pressure would had been forming over the Yucatan Channel or north of it the winds should had been from a northerly or westerly direction all across the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

850MB layer vorticity graphic showing the highest vorticity near the tip of the Yucatan:

[ronjon]

HPC sounding fairly bullish on development.

...HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...


THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LAST 24
HOURS IS A LARGE UPTICK IN THE NUMBER OF MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--BOTH GEFS AND ECENS--THAT DEVELOP A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM
THE PRIMORDIAL TROPICAL SOUP CURRENTLY ENVELOPING THE REGION FROM
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HERETOFORE, THE MODELS--WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM
GLOBAL--INDICATED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE
TO SHEAR THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE REACTIVATED FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE
EAST COAST. NOW, MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LESS AMPLITUDE WITH
THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE, HENCE, LESS SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN GULF,
HENCE, MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE
COORDINATING WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1700Z THIS
AFTERNOON TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION, WITH ANY CHANGES TO THE MANUAL
FRONTAL PROGS SENT THIS MORNING TO BE REFLECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HEMISPHERIC ISSUANCE.

[ROCK]

I see a MLC inland as well...not off the coast just yet IMO....

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


nothing at the surface right now.....still a pocket of 40knt shear right in front of it...still though I think its worthy of 20%...

[ronjon]

Broad low pressure developing off the north coast of the Yucatan just as the global models have been advertising. It will be slow to organize and tighten up. It also has to detach itself from the monsoon trough which will take time.
Shear is on the decrease though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[ouragans]

Up to 20%

we should have officially 91L with the next 50 minutes

[cycloneye]

Here is a video about the whole situation made by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... nd-se-u-s/

[Alyono]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=


nothing at the surface right now.....still a pocket of 40knt shear right in front of it...still though I think its worthy of 20%...

we're entering the development window. The increase is appropriate

[cycloneye]

We have Invest 91L so this thread is locked. Continue the discussions at the INVEST 91L Thread