ATL: INVEST 90L

[JtSmarts]

Excellent detailed analysis MiamiensisWx, this definitely should have Floridians' attention if just for the potential tornado threat.

[ronjon]

7 day QPF.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

[cycloneye]

There is no plan for the squadron to go to this area for now.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. REMARKS: THIS IS THE FIRST TCPOD OF THIS SEASON,
A NEW ONE WILL NOW BE PUBLISHED EACH DAY THROUGH
30 NOVEMBER.
$$
INITIALS WVW

[EmeraldCoast93]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola now has its eyes on this system as well:

.LONG TERM...[MONDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY]...EACH CONSECUTIVE
SPECTRAL MODEL RUN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING
WITH WHERE AND WHEN TO SPIN UP THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA (CURRENTLY
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE). THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE
STILL DEVELOPS AND MOVES A SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH BECAUSE THE
MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING VORTICITY IN THE SAME LOCATION
WITH EACH INITIALIZATION AND WE DON`T KNOW EVEN IF IT WILL HAPPEN IN
THE REAL ATMOSPHERE...MUCH LESS...WHERE A DOMINANT CIRCULATION WOULD
INITIALLY DEVELOP AND EXACTLY WHEN. IF THIS DID COME TO PASS...THE
SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS IT IS
BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD WHILE DEEPENING AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES (LOOKS VERY FRONTALLY-FORCED / BAROCLINIC
AFTER MOVING NORTH OF BAY OF CAMPECHE). ALSO ONE OTHER THOUGHT IS
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS
THE 31.12 UTC PACKAGE AND THIS WILL AFFECT HOW FAR NORTHWARD IT IS
DRAWN...OR MAYBE NOT ALL IF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ENERGY KEEPS
TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH TIME?

[artist]

yeah, here is our local HO -

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-012200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 AM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE YUCATAN
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST OR CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...BRINGING IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS LIKELY FALLING IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS COULD START EARLIER. AREA-WIDE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS...AND ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK...SO INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS THIS SITUATION UNFOLDS.

and we have rain coming in today on top of the above as well as all we have had this past week. It is more than saturated here already.

[OuterBanker]

There is no plan for the squadron to go to this area for now.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 01 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


While I certainly don’t think anything now warrants a mission I just can’t help thinking that the sequester will have a direct effect on the missions this year.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. REMARKS: THIS IS THE FIRST TCPOD OF THIS SEASON,
A NEW ONE WILL NOW BE PUBLISHED EACH DAY THROUGH
30 NOVEMBER.
$$
INITIALS WVW

[Hurricane Andrew]

Nevermind

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS POORLY ORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[MGC]

Looks rather disorganized this afternoon.....this might take a while to get going.......MGC

[fci]

Invest 90L is a good example of when there is a good concensus among the models for cyclogenesis the NHC does not waist any time in getting the ball rolling.
As far as If this is Barbara or not, these are the remnants, It came out of MX without a closed surface circulation, it was interrupted by the high terrains, so the NHC is right in renaming this especially with the models keep showing the the h85 vorticity will die out and for a new one to reform over the next couple days.

Regardless of surface circulation or not, the NHC would have given this a new designation and a new name once it crossed into the Atlantic basin. If it had made it to the gulf as a TS, it would have become Andrea.

Thank you!
Whenever a system crosses over it gets a new designation.
Has happened several times with systems from the Atlantic that cross over into the Eastern Pacific.
There really was no need for a debate on "Barbara" or not.
But then again it is Day 1 of the season so people are getting back into the swing of things.

[Kingarabian]

Invest 90L is a good example of when there is a good concensus among the models for cyclogenesis the NHC does not waist any time in getting the ball rolling.
As far as If this is Barbara or not, these are the remnants, It came out of MX without a closed surface circulation, it was interrupted by the high terrains, so the NHC is right in renaming this especially with the models keep showing the the h85 vorticity will die out and for a new one to reform over the next couple days.

Regardless of surface circulation or not, the NHC would have given this a new designation and a new name once it crossed into the Atlantic basin. If it had made it to the gulf as a TS, it would have become Andrea.

Thank you!
Whenever a system crosses over it gets a new designation.
Has happened several times with systems from the Atlantic that cross over into the Eastern Pacific.
There really was no need for a debate on "Barbara" or not.
But then again it is Day 1 of the season so people are getting back into the swing of things.

It doesn't anymore... See the reply's to the post you quoted.

[cycloneye]

This is the thinking by TAFB for the 72 hour timeframe.

[gatorcane]

Looks rather disorganized this afternoon.....this might take a while to get going.......MGC

That pretty much sums things up. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low pressure organizing some just north of the Yucatan and getting ejected NE. But both keep the low pressure weak. Should be plenty SW shear around to prevent the system to from getting organized. Plus water temperatures outside of the loop current are still borderline for supporting a tropical storm or hurricane. I would suspect the bulk of the rain and convection stay on the east side of the system due to the SW shear.

[psyclone]

Maybe...just maybe we need to look to last year's Debby as a possible analog. a sheared clunker with nonstop northeast center reformations as it battled shear. was never a looker as far as TCs are concerned (then again super early season storms rarely are) so the the threat from sustained winds was never significant (outside a marine hazard) but very heavy rains and svrwx were an issue. Debby unloaded about 15" over me and caused horrendous flooding in a number of locations. at this point, regardless of development the threat of heavy rain over south florida is looking likely and central florida has some potential too. I am not at all sold on development of a numbered/named cyclone but i do think hazardous weather in the form of heavy rain/svrwx is meaninful and worth paying attention to regardless of development.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is the thinking by TAFB for the 72 hour timeframe.

Interesting. You have a link to the TAFBs?

[cycloneye]

This is the thinking by TAFB for the 72 hour timeframe.

Interesting. You have a link to the TAFBs?

Here it is.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

[northjaxpro]

Maybe...just maybe we need to look to last year's Debby as a possible analog. a sheared clunker with nonstop northeast center reformations as it battled shear. was never a looker as far as TCs are concerned (then again super early season storms rarely are) so the the threat from sustained winds was never significant (outside a marine hazard) but very heavy rains and svrwx were an issue. Debby unloaded about 15" over me and caused horrendous flooding in a number of locations. at this point, regardless of development the threat of heavy rain over south florida is looking likely and central florida has some potential too. I am not at all sold on development of a numbered/named cyclone but i do think hazardous weather in the form of heavy rain/svrwx is meaninful and worth paying attention to regardless of development.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's a good assessment psyclone. Yeah, the peninsula really will have to monitor this situation closely as if this system evolves, it likely would be an elongated sheared entity east of the circulation center. If it is a slow mover and tracks toward the peninsula as the reliable models currently are depicting, the flood potential is really going to loom large as the upcoming week progresses.

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters blog this afternoon

Today, June 1, is the official first day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, and we already have our first Atlantic tropical disturbance to talk about. Hurricane Barbara, which died on Thursday as it attempted to cross Mexico's Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico, has left behind an area of disturbed weather over the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. There is very little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with Barbara's remnants apparent on satellite loops this Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is a high 20 knots in the region, and the area of disturbed weather is quite small, so I don't expect any development to occur over the next few days. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday. Moisture from the remnants of Barbara may combine with moisture from an area of heavy thunderstorms expected to build over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and begin bringing heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba on Sunday and Monday. These heavy rains may spread to Southwest Florida as early as Monday night. The computer models predict that this disturbance should be large and poorly organized, making development into a Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone unlikely.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[NDG]

This set up reminds me of TS Alberto, June '06
Alberto was able to form under 30-40 knots of windshear but as it tracked over the loop current it strengthed into a strong tropical storm. Not saying that it will be a strong tropical storm but I think it has a good chance of becoming Andrea despite windshear in the GOM, IMO.
Regardless of having a named tropical storm or not the worst weather which will be heavy rains will affect much of the FL Peninsula next week, especially south FL. It has been persistently shown by the GFS and ECMWF.



Current GOM SSTs.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

I would not say GOM ssts cannot support a TS at this time....shes plenty hot!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL