ATL: INVEST 90L

[cycloneye]

We can continue the discussions in this thread until the new invest 91L is up and then we switch to that one.

[blp]

Well this is interesting they have the graphic in the W.carribean may be a preview for soon to be 91l being located there.

[cycloneye]

The squadron plans to investigate on Tuesday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.

[cycloneye]

Why is there no floater? And why does it still say "no active storms" up there?

Now we know it was a teaser. The real deal will be 91L.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Any activation yet?

[cycloneye]

Any activation yet?

Noy yet but sometime today it will. This thread will be locked and then we go to the new 91L thread to continue the discussions.

[MiamiensisWx]

The new low center looks to form later tonight inland over the Yucatán peninsula near Campeche. A broad trough axis has formed in this area and the upward vertical motion on the east (convergent) side of the axis is intersecting an area of low- and mid-level vorticity that should become more aligned tonight. In the evening, the diurnal maximum should allow convection to develop closer to the vorticity center as the convection over the E Yucatán diminishes due to cool outflow. Low-level convergence will shift over to near Campeche as the trough axis moves through.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif
700-mb vorticity

The dot to the left of the "L" denotes the area where I believe the low is developing:

[cycloneye]

For those who may want to know where the invests pop up and are deactivated here is the ATCF file for 2013. At the top in the deactivations section you can see 90L deactivated. 91L will pop up below the 90L one if you look down the list.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm a little surprised that convection has persisted for nearly nine consecutive hours near Cozumel and has expanded both to the NE and to the SW. These storms are producing rain rates of up to 1.5" inches per hour! Already they are warming the upper troposphere and strengthening the anticyclone at 200 mb; note the emergence of "feathery" outflow on the NW and NE sides according to recent satellite data. None of the models has really captured the strength of the convection which we are seeing now.

[Aric Dunn]

watch for low to start forming just north of fhe yucatan channel today. already a few indications of it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My firstgraphic for this. Red is heaviest conection over last twelve hours. Yellow is where development could begin over the next three days.

Just a simple graphic for now.

Made with SketchBookExpress on my iPad.
EDIT: Unable to get imageshack to work on iPad., can't copy code. Grrr.
http://imageshack.us/content_round.php? ... bSj1Jiq.99

[floridasun78]

so south fl going get bad flood what i hearing miami area dade area got alot rain past few weeks not sure if we handle that much rain

[NDG]

Looking at the HR vis sat loop I can several vorticities where I marked the X on the pix below.
The vorticity in the western BOC is still pretty strong while the vorticity over the interior of the Yucatan P. seems to be getting a surface reflection.
IMO, this might be the reason why 91L has not come out yet because they are trying to wait and see which vorticity becomes the strongest to make sure they start the models right.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Oh my, is that spread out or what.

[Hurricane Andrew]

watch for low to start forming just north of fhe yucatan channel today. already a few indications of it.

If you don't mind me asking, what indications? I haven't seen any.

[Aric Dunn]

watch for low to start forming just north of fhe yucatan channel today. already a few indications of it.

If you don't mind me asking, what indications? I haven't seen any.

the low level flow has turned more east to west as the ridge builds in. u can alse see a weak rotation taking shape. however there is likely to be multiple vorts develop with every burst of convection.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

the low itself will likely spin up fast. the shear will be the big inhibitor for the nhc. just north of the ne tip of the yucatan penisula is where its starting develop however i am on my phone sooooo lol

[hurricanekid416]

If the center ends up being over the Yucatan would it start weakening due to land interactions

[NDG]

If the center ends up being over the Yucatan would it start weakening due to land interactions

It would be weak to begin with, not that it will weaken, and will stay weak and broad until it moves over water.