ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 31, 2013 7:41 am

All about the models here.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 31, 2013 8:36 am

They have not runned yet the first run of the Bams,.Waiting for that soon.

#3 Postby **BigA** » Fri May 31, 2013 9:12 am

There seems to be reasonably good consensus on the globals right now that there will be some sort of low pressure area in the central gulf in the 6 to 9 day timeframe. Based on historical experience and the usual upper-level set up, I would imagine that this system would be the typical lopsided June TS that can still bring a ton of rain at and to the east of where it hits.

No certainty yet that there will be a classified TC out of this, but looking at the globals I think there is a good possibility.

#4 Postby **N2FSU** » Fri May 31, 2013 9:56 am

06Z GFS; 48hr. Showing development of 90L in BOC

#5 Postby **N2FSU** » Fri May 31, 2013 9:58 am

Sorry for double post!

#6 Postby **N2FSU** » Fri May 31, 2013 10:01 am

*and again*

tropicwatch · #7 Postby **tropicwatch** » Fri May 31, 2013 10:04 am

BAMD, BAMM, BAMS AND EXTRAP are up 1200Z

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_70.gif

#8 Postby **N2FSU** » Fri May 31, 2013 10:04 am

06Z GFS; 204 hrs. Headed for the north central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 31, 2013 10:07 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:BAMD, BAMM, BAMS AND EXTRAP are up 1200Z

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_70.gif

That was for 70L that was a test run, not for 90L. Still waiting for the first run.

Janie2006 · #10 Postby **Janie2006** » Fri May 31, 2013 10:53 am

Hrmmmm. At this moment in time, from a model perspective, a lot is going to depend on the amplification of the trough expected to move into the central CONUS next week. GFS has a more amplified trough, and EMCWF has it less so, and that seems to be the difference. The more amplified trough would push it (assuming we've a storm) towards Cedar Key and perhaps Tampa, etcetera, whilst the less amplified trough allows the storm to move farther north. Time for the wait-and-see game.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 31, 2013 11:37 am

Well,the flip flopping of the models is quite evident at the 12z GFS run as it doesn't develop anything of note in the GOM on this run.That's why we have to be patient and don't get excited on 1 run. Now we have to wait for the next runs of this model to see if is an outlier or not.

Stormlover2012 · #12 Postby **Stormlover2012** » Fri May 31, 2013 11:43 am

you are exactly right, untill something develops then we can get on board!! we all know what models do early on during hurricane season they go overboard...

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 31, 2013 1:51 pm

12z ECMWF is now towards Florida Penninsula as a sheared weak Tropical Storm.

144 hours.

Stormlover2012 · #14 Postby **Stormlover2012** » Fri May 31, 2013 2:05 pm

yeah I just think this will be a rain maker, hopefully florida is ready for a good rain. I just hope it doesn't mess up the seminoles super regional games next weekend.

ROCK · #15 Postby **ROCK** » Fri May 31, 2013 2:46 pm

yeah the 12Z runs didnt do anything for me....just a large sloppy mess in the GOM heading towards FL....I will however point out the CMC did develope it more so than the GFS and EURO....it has been upgraded...just sayin..

#16 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri May 31, 2013 3:39 pm

well I should be trying to fill my pool up next week after the big refurb that has been taking forever to complete. maybe the timing will be perfect so that I can save some $$ on filling it up!

MiamiensisWx · #17 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri May 31, 2013 4:10 pm

The 12Z ECMWF actually shows a strong depression, not a TS, hitting St. Petersburg/Tampa in five days. The maximum 850-mb wind on the charts is 19 m/s, which converts to about 29 kt (34 mph) at the standard 10-m elevation. So the landfall intensity shown is about 30 kt/1003 mb. South FL would actually want to see a slightly stronger storm to maximize upward convergence and rainfall totals. We all could use the rain for the entire state as our rainy season has been slow to begin!

Riptide · #18 Postby **Riptide** » Fri May 31, 2013 5:03 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:The 12Z ECMWF actually shows a strong depression, not a TS, hitting St. Petersburg/Tampa in five days. The maximum 850-mb wind on the charts is 19 m/s, which converts to about 29 kt (34 mph) at the standard 10-m elevation. So the landfall intensity shown is about 30 kt/1003 mb. South FL would actually want to see a slightly stronger storm to maximize upward convergence and rainfall totals. We all could use the rain for the entire state as our rainy season has been slow to begin!

Intensity is a tough nut to crack with these setups. I would not expect anything more than a strong TS though.

#19 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri May 31, 2013 5:58 pm

I just took a look at the 12Z ensembles of various models (Euro, GFS, GEM, NAM), and I am more hopeful now that there will not be a tropical system in the Gulf this week. Shear looks to be more than prohibitive for anything polar of 22N. Either way, we'll have to watch for flooding in the southern two-thirds of the peninsula of FL.

bonjourno · #20 Postby **bonjourno** » Fri May 31, 2013 6:30 pm

Making my first post of the new season.

Not sure if this is the same storm, but CMC showing a relatively weak system hitting the west coast of FL at 122 hours.

ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

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