ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Sanibel]

Flights cancelled out of RSW. Lightning outbreak an hour ago, punchy gusts. Moderate rain.

[adam0983]

There is one last big rain band crossing the southern part of the state. Do you think the band will hold together and what time should it get to Palm Beach county.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 061940
AF302 0301A ANDREA HDOB 19 20130606
193230 2614N 08208W 8392 01601 0083 +186 +068 267036 037 032 007 00
193300 2615N 08208W 8397 01596 0082 +187 +067 264034 035 032 006 00
193330 2617N 08209W 8391 01602 0079 +191 +065 261032 034 035 005 00
193400 2618N 08210W 8385 01607 0079 +191 +065 260031 031 034 005 00
193430 2619N 08211W 8393 01599 0078 +190 +065 257031 031 035 004 00
193500 2620N 08212W 8386 01603 0078 +187 +068 255031 031 035 004 00
193530 2622N 08213W 8392 01595 0077 +185 +074 253030 031 034 004 00
193600 2623N 08214W 8392 01595 0076 +184 +071 253029 030 032 005 00
193630 2624N 08215W 8392 01592 0075 +182 +075 253028 029 035 004 00
193700 2625N 08216W 8392 01592 0077 +177 +079 253028 029 035 004 00
193730 2627N 08217W 8391 01591 0075 +176 +083 250027 027 035 003 03
193800 2627N 08219W 8263 01714 0069 +164 +074 253026 027 035 004 03
193830 2628N 08220W 7912 02081 0061 +151 +044 269026 027 /// /// 03
193900 2629N 08222W 7546 02481 0057 +132 +021 278028 029 /// /// 03
193930 2629N 08224W 7215 02858 0061 +105 +008 276027 029 /// /// 03
194000 2630N 08225W 6934 03189 0064 +082 -009 286025 027 /// /// 03
194030 2631N 08227W 6691 03484 0056 +070 -036 279024 025 /// /// 03
194100 2632N 08228W 6458 03773 0048 +058 -072 271028 032 032 001 03
194130 2632N 08230W 6213 04092 0047 +043 -125 262034 036 034 000 03
194200 2633N 08232W 6006 04368 0041 +029 -181 253038 039 033 001 00
$$
;

Mission over. Any missions planned if it returns to the Atlantic?

[Sanibel]

Transformer boom and momentary power outage.

[Mouton]

Fernandina Beach pretty quiet here up in far NE Florida. Light rain, no wind to speak of. Barometer falling at 29.7 now, .15 drop in past three hours.

[jlauderdal]

There is one last big rain band crossing the southern part of the state. Do you think the band will hold together and what time should it get to Palm Beach county.

i think you could get a good squall at any time in advance of that big band, you can scattered development ahead of the main area...we just had one come through, 5 minute world is going to end squall and sunny now so plenty of heating in place to get additional activity...we were speculating very early this morning we might get some sun this afternoon and that has materialized

[jlauderdal]

Fernandina Beach pretty quiet here up in far NE Florida. Light rain, no wind to speak of. Barometer falling at 29.7 now, .15 drop in past three hours.

fernandina beach is always quiet,

[jlauderdal]

Being fair, the CMC performed very well with Andrea, following ECMWF. Imho.

cmc was good, lets see if its a trend

[Mouton]

fernandina beach is always quiet

Spoke too soon, pouring down rain now in a squall. another.02 to 29.68 off barometer also with gusts to 20 or so. Not so quiet now.

Was in Clearwater yesterday when we decided to hit the silk and head home, looked too ominous.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION SHORTLY. AFTER
LANDFALL...ANDREA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND ANDREA
SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 41 MPH...67 KM/HR...AND A GUST
OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO AUCILLA RIVER...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH DOWNEAST
MAINE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IN THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55
KT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 71 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB. ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT. NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15. ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.

ANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND
NEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
COMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE
BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO
EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH
CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR COAST
12H 07/0600Z 31.9N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/1800Z 35.6N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/0600Z 39.8N 73.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 08/1800Z 43.8N 67.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 09/1800Z 46.6N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 10/1800Z 46.0N 29.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

...ANDREA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...RAINS AND WINDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S.
COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[Weatherguy173]

hmmmm..... the wind speeds seem to disagree with NHC predictions

[ricka47]

Fernandina Beach pretty quiet here up in far NE Florida. Light rain, no wind to speak of. Barometer falling at 29.7 now, .15 drop in past three hours.

fernandina beach is always quiet,

TV is just reporting damage from a tornado in Fernandina.

[cycloneye]

Andrea makes landfall

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
545 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

SUMMARY OF 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF GAINSVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA MADE LANDFALL IN DIXIE COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 10 MILES...16
KM...SOUTH OF STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA AROUND 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC. AT
THE TIME OF LANDFALL...ANDREA HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65
MPH...100 KM/H.

WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WAS
REPORTED AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. OTHER RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE 46
MPH...74 KM/H...AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR TAMPA...AND 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AT BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
545 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013

...ANDREA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

SUMMARY OF 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF GAINSVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM
ANDREA MADE LANDFALL IN DIXIE COUNTY FLORIDA...ABOUT 10 MILES...16
KM...SOUTH OF STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA AROUND 540 PM EDT...2140 UTC. AT
THE TIME OF LANDFALL...ANDREA HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65
MPH...100 KM/H.

WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WAS
REPORTED AT CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. OTHER RECENT WIND GUSTS INCLUDE 46
MPH...74 KM/H...AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE NEAR TAMPA...AND 39
MPH...63 KM/H...AT BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing based on surface obs and the weaker presentation since Recon left, the landfall intensity was 50 kt (as opposed to 55 kt at 1800Z and 60 kt peak at 1200Z).

[gsytch]

The strongest winds of the entire event are occurring now. Despite very little rain, gusts have easily been 40mph in the past hour, every few minutes. I am just north of Tarpon Springs. Total rainfall just over 3". TS #1 in the books.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm guessing based on surface obs and the weaker presentation since Recon left, the landfall intensity was 50 kt (as opposed to 55 kt at 1800Z and 60 kt peak at 1200Z).

This is about what I was thinking. I wish recon could have flown a little earlier in the day...

[SFLcane]

Getting slammed here in SFL horizontal rain with some 35-45 mph gusts. Just in time to drive home from work :0(

[jlauderdal]

Fernandina Beach pretty quiet here up in far NE Florida. Light rain, no wind to speak of. Barometer falling at 29.7 now, .15 drop in past three hours.

fernandina beach is always quiet,

TV is just reporting damage from a tornado in Fernandina.

i really like fernandina, i hope the damage is minimal...most excitment that town has seen since spanish came ashore 100's of years ago..