Arabian Sea: INVEST 96A

[jaguarjace]

19.7N 64.4E

[Hurricane_Luis]

JTWC has upgraded to Medium.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
65.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 62.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST.
THIS IS APPARENT IN A 041239Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 040806Z
SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS. STRONGER FLOW IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK TOWARD THE OMANI COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's moving inland

[euro6208]

TXIO22 KNES 050343
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96A)

B. 05/0230Z

C. 20.9N

D. 60.9E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON CENTER LT
1.25DEG FROM EDGE. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

04/2327Z 20.8N 61.2E AMSU
04/2340Z 20.8N 61.2E SSMI


...RAMIREZ

[jaguarjace]

Pretty much gone.