ATL: INVEST 92L

[NDG]

Former 92L still has a nice little vorticity this morning, approaching the Turks & Caicos Islands, if it would had not been June we would had been tracking a fairly strong system, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Look where the naked LLC of ex92L is located on this Sunday afternoon.

[ozonepete]

Lol, yeah, Luis. So tiny. And now it's popping convection.

[Syx6sic]

Looks nice but the real question is will it keep trying to come back and if it does where do u see it going. I am new here but lived on east coast thru every hurricane that's went they va in Norfolk since 84 glad to find a board that loves these storms just as much as me sorry got alittle off topic there but does look like ex92L is trying to make a comeback

[ozonepete]

Welcome to storm2k! Right now this is really not much more than a curiosity. It's just a very small surface swirl that I can't see developing into anything significant because of its size. We just enjoy watching any activity in the tropics.

[Syx6sic]

Yea looks interesting and to survive all that shear even though all the convection left and then it's getting it back does remind me of Katrina though

[ozonepete]

Well now, Katrina I don't see at all. And although there is vorticity from 850mb all the way up to 500mb on the CIMSS charts, and you can see a larger swirl associated with this wave on the satellite loops still moving westward, I don't see anything happening with this anymore. If something did happen it wouldn't even be 92L anyway.

[Nimbus]

Probably very shallow broad low pressure at the surface, just the swirl moving west that is easy to track. Have all the models dropped this feature?

[cycloneye]

Probably very shallow broad low pressure at the surface, just the swirl moving west that is easy to track. Have all the models dropped this feature?

None show anything with it.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, Luis, it's been dropped for a while now. I put on my thinking cap and went digging, and I think I found the answer. This has moved under a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) and there is no upper divergence at all under such a feature. I attached the CIMSS upper divergence chart with the TUTT annotated and you can see the large area of negative divergence within the upper trough (at 200-300mb) and thus overhead of this wave. So there is no large scale evacuation of air over the top of the wave and thus it can't produce convection. While it still could regenerate after it gets into the Gulf and past this feature, it's hardly that likely anymore. I've just been following it because it's the only game in town.

[Syx6sic]

Yea seems like the only thing to watch right now