ATL: INVEST 92L

[cycloneye]

Aric here it is!!


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306061923
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013060618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922013
AL, 92, 2013060618, , BEST, 0, 136N, 467W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Aric Dunn]

haha finally.. lol

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If this were any later in the season, I bet they'd upgrade this to at least a tropical depression.

[RL3AO]

Aric's posts finally got to them I guess.

[Hurricane Andrew]

LOL. NOW they upgrade. *sigh*

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Several days back when everyone was looking at what is now Andrea I had notice that the GFS and CMC had picked up on this. Looking very good for this time of year and that far out.

[tolakram]

How about that!

Just in time for shear to rip it to shreds.

live loop vis: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[cycloneye]

Bouy close to low pressure.

[Fego]

What a timing, as soon as Andrea got inland, they decided to keep the show running. Can't wait to see models first plots.

[Weatherboy1]

About time on this puppy! Glad they got around to at least designating. As others have noted, there is formidable shear ahead of 92. But the structure of the low pressure is very impressive with a large area of rotating low clouds and in the last few hours, a hefty blow up of convection around the center. We'll have to see if it can get its act together further. But that buoy report (along with the satellite presentation) certainly seem to suggest we have a very strong wave and almost borderline TD (in my opinion!)

[supercane4867]

TXNT24 KNES 061946
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 06/1745Z

C. 14.0N

D. 46.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ARE AVAILABLE BUT THE 0614Z SSMI
DID HINT AT A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION CENTER. LIMITED ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION
IS SHEARED LT 1/2 DEGREE EAST OF THE CENTER. LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE
ELONGATED NW TO SE AND ARE NOT TIGHTLY CURVED. DT IS ASSIGNED 1.0 IN
SPITE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE CONVECTION BECAUSE THE
CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED. MET AND PT
ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY

[cycloneye]

00
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2000 UTC THU JUN 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130606 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130606 1800 130607 0600 130607 1800 130608 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 46.7W 14.6N 49.1W 15.5N 51.7W 16.3N 54.3W
BAMD 13.6N 46.7W 14.6N 47.9W 15.3N 49.1W 16.0N 50.4W
BAMM 13.6N 46.7W 14.5N 48.7W 15.2N 50.7W 15.8N 52.8W
LBAR 13.6N 46.7W 14.4N 48.2W 15.2N 50.1W 15.7N 52.3W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 29KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130608 1800 130609 1800 130610 1800 130611 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 57.0W 18.3N 62.6W 19.7N 68.3W 21.2N 72.8W
BAMD 16.5N 51.6W 17.1N 53.2W 16.9N 53.2W 17.8N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 55.1W 17.1N 59.5W 17.8N 63.7W 19.4N 67.8W
LBAR 16.2N 54.7W 16.9N 59.3W 17.6N 62.8W 18.7N 64.5W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 46.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 45.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 43.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[TheStormExpert]

What a timing, as soon as Andrea got inland, they decided to keep the show running. Can't wait to see models first plots.

I'm guessing it's too early in the season for the NHC to be keeping track of multiple areas.

[cycloneye]

Look at the very strong shear that awaits 92L.

22 26 36 41 35 39 31 36 33 36 34 44 40

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13060 ... _ships.txt

[Tireman4]

I'm guessing it's too early in the season for the NHC to be keeping track of multiple areas.

Oh my at that comment...LOL



*edited by sg to fix quotes

[Stormcenter]

DOA? The shear ahead of it looks lethal.

[BigB0882]

At least it got an Invest. It deserved that much, at least. lol If you told me to find the TS on one of the current maps, I would definitely have picked the wrong one, that is for sure.

[Cyclenall]

haha finally.. lol

Better late than never! Let's get this thing up to Berry because its time for the Atlantic to get wacky.

If this were any later in the season, I bet they'd upgrade this to at least a tropical depression.

I'm not so sure, I can't imagine the NHC acting like that in different ways because the criticism would build more against the agency. This situation is similar to June 2010 where there was some very early stuff coming off Africa and they did pay close attention to it then. There wasn't two systems ongoing at once though (IIRC), 2013 is special already.

Look at the very strong shear that awaits 92L.

22 26 36 41 35 39 31 36 33 36 34 44 40

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13060 ... _ships.txt

Lets see the shear go poof for once.

[wxman57]

Certainly an impressive wave for June. The high shear in its path will keep it in check. Could be a few storms for the northern islands in a few days.

[SouthDadeFish]

I have absolutely no idea how this didn't/doesn't qualify as a tropical cyclone....

I guess because it will most likely be ripped apart soon by shear?