ATL: INVEST 92L

[ROCK]

not even the mighty CMC developes it anymore....latest IR loop show the LLC racing NW leaving all of the convection behind. Sort of like a decapitation of Chris a few years back. Sheared the tops right off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

not saying it cant regenerate down the line but it ran right into a wall of 30-40knt shear head first.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Regardless of whether or not this was a tropical cyclone (it was), it does not bode well for the remainder of the season. Seeing development, or even seeing such a strong wave such as this, within the central and eastern Atlantic during the first week of June indicates the parameters needed for tropical cyclogenesis are already setting up, and the environment should be more than conducive for systems later in the year barring any large-scale changes.

[floridasun78]

will nhc drop invest by 2am or 8am?

[ConvergenceZone]

Very impressive start to the season. Last year Andrea probably would have just remained a wave or a low end depression, as shear or dry air would have held it in check, and we wouldn't have seen 92L until later. You can just feel it that things are going to be different from a atmospheric condition standpoint this year..... We'll have to wait and see if anything is left of 92L to possibly regenerate down the road....

[ozonepete]

will nhc drop invest by 2am or 8am?

As long as there's something going on with it (some kind of low level circulation along with convection, whether sheared or not) they will keep tabs on it. If both of those disappear they'll drop it, but I would venture to say that no one knows that for sure right now. At night we can't see the LLC (low-level circulation) so they usually wait for daylight before deciding if there is one or not.

[ozonepete]

not even the mighty CMC developes it anymore....latest IR loop show the LLC racing NW leaving all of the convection behind. Sort of like a decapitation of Chris a few years back. Sheared the tops right off.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

not saying it cant regenerate down the line but it ran right into a wall of 30-40knt shear head first.

The "mighty CMC". Lol, what are you drinking Rock? I want some. (Yeah, and I know what you meant ha ha.)

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

1. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

[Aric Dunn]

fact of the matter 2 days ago i started the other thread and it was already a closed low then... and by definition a td. scat data then confirmed it was at least td. subsequent data showed ts ... not sure the reason for the lack of attention. but rather dis-concerning..


in the science world every bit of data is needed. this is a failure. i know the dvorak and how to apply it. also know its subjective by nature. for 2 days it had a closed circ and convection.. somewhat disorganized at times but better than most ... the fact it still exist proves it has not been just a wave .. waves dont produce the type of convective development it showed over the last 48 hours.

yeah is it sheared now.. last 2 days it was not... pretty simple analysis... question to ask... what is the actual definition of a tropical storm.

been evidence of a closed circ with winds of tropical storm force but yet not declared a tropical storm... go figure.. talk about a flawed subjective definition.

I mean seriously... do a comparison... Andrea was by definition a warm core simply because its temp profile says it was and the circ was closed however at first the circ was less defined than this was at first the last 2 days. compare the deep tropics tropical system to Andrea a sheared more disorganized system interacting with a cold core trough.... lol whats the more tropical sheared system lol..

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N48W TO 12N49W MOVING W-NW AT 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE LIES NW OF THE AXIS WHILE DRY AIR LIES
SW AND SE OF THE AXIS S OF 15N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR SPREADING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES W-NW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 45W-49W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

[Hurricaneman]

The Canadian and the Euro develop this in the Bahamas in 8 to 10 days combining this with a front reforming a low sending it into Savanah Ga, the GFS does nothing with it until the GFS comes onboard its really not worth noting

[wxman57]

This one is dead. We see a number of such systems embedded in the ITCZ each season. At times they appear to have a surface circulation for a day or two. I'm not in favor of naming such transient systems with no development potential. Good call by NHC in ignoring it.

[tolakram]

The NHC mission statement probably should be recalled from time to time.

Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards.

I read this as; a short lived storm in the middle of nowhere posing no hazard to land doesn't have to be classified. It's really a tossup and neither decision is a mistake.

[lester]

fact of the matter 2 days ago i started the other thread and it was already a closed low then... and by definition a td. scat data then confirmed it was at least td. subsequent data showed ts ... not sure the reason for the lack of attention. but rather dis-concerning..


in the science world every bit of data is needed. this is a failure. i know the dvorak and how to apply it. also know its subjective by nature. for 2 days it had a closed circ and convection.. somewhat disorganized at times but better than most ... the fact it still exist proves it has not been just a wave .. waves dont produce the type of convective development it showed over the last 48 hours.

yeah is it sheared now.. last 2 days it was not... pretty simple analysis... question to ask... what is the actual definition of a tropical storm.

been evidence of a closed circ with winds of tropical storm force but yet not declared a tropical storm... go figure.. talk about a flawed subjective definition.

I mean seriously... do a comparison... Andrea was by definition a warm core simply because its temp profile says it was and the circ was closed however at first the circ was less defined than this was at first the last 2 days. compare the deep tropics tropical system to Andrea a sheared more disorganized system interacting with a cold core trough.... lol whats the more tropical sheared system lol..

The fact of the matter is, the NHC is going to go with the one that's actually threatening land. 92L may have been a TD and looked better than Andrea at one point but all it's doing is threatening fishes. May not be fair but it is what it is.

[ROCK]

I agree....when you know its going to be a short lived heading into 40knt shear zone then why waste the resources. Might be a common theme this year for the NHC....

BTW- I think we have about 3 weeks before our next invest, IMO

[ROCK]

The Canadian and the Euro develop this in the Bahamas in 8 to 10 days combining this with a front reforming a low sending it into Savanah Ga, the GFS does nothing with it until the GFS comes onboard its really not worth noting

Eh, I dont think that is 92L....looks like a frontal low that gets left behind. 92L is nothing more than a naked swirl attm...It will take awhile for the LLC to spin down and open up...

[TheStormExpert]

From Crown Weathers Rob Lightbown on Invest 92L.

This disturbance did become fairly well organized, especially for June, yesterday and I do believe it was briefly a tropical depression or tropical storm for a while yesterday. As of now, however, Invest 92-L has really no chance to develop due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

It needs to be pointed out that the tropical Atlantic is much more unstable than it has been in quite a few years and this is quite troubling. The combination of more unstable atmosphere in the tropics, expected favorable environmental conditions and warm to very warm ocean temperatures may lead to a busy late June into July and a potentially very, very busy August and September.

[Ptarmigan]

This one is dead. We see a number of such systems embedded in the ITCZ each season. At times they appear to have a surface circulation for a day or two. I'm not in favor of naming such transient systems with no development potential. Good call by NHC in ignoring it.

Shear is killing it. It may have a better chance to develop if it enters the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one is dead. We see a number of such systems embedded in the ITCZ each season. At times they appear to have a surface circulation for a day or two. I'm not in favor of naming such transient systems with no development potential. Good call by NHC in ignoring it.

A tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone regardless of how long it lasts. 92L has been a well-defined feature since Tuesday afternoon, when an ASCAT pass showed it was not part of the ITCZ and had a closed circulation. Convection has always been quite organized with this feature, and it is/was obviously a warm core feature. We've seen plenty of other systems look and last way worse and shorter than 92L did.

[Kingarabian]

Happens in the EPac as well. Used to it. Sometimes the NHC takes the really conservative route .

[ozonepete]

It's heading into an area of very low shear...