WPAC: INVEST 99W

[vrif]

[vrif]

OSCAT is showing a LLCC.

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0N 113.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 111634Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH
10 KNOT WINDS. NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS WITH
SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 5
TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND DISORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
113.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN 111633Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
REVEALS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WINDS. NEARBY SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS WITH SEA LEVEL PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH WEAK
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT

[supercane4867]

Disorganized mess

[vrif]

It is now upgraded to a medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4N
113.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 114.6E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH EXPANSIVE, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION MOSTLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 131634Z SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES
ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN RIM OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A
WEAK CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO MAINLAND CHINA OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. THESE ARE BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND NEARBY SHIP
OBSERVATIONS. DUE TO THE IMPROVING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[vrif]

The 131634Z OSCAT showing the elevated winds northwest of the LLCC.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
114.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 113.9E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH EXPANSIVE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 131634Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS INDICATES ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN RIM OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF
AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A WEAK CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO MAINLAND CHINA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
113.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT NEARLY ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE SYSTEM EXPANDS NEARLY 550 NM. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AS THERE IS A LACK OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHILE CONVECTION IN THE OUTER PERIPHERIES OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS EXPANSIVE, YET DISORGANIZED. A 140217Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS INDICATES WEAK CENTRAL WINDS (05-10 KNOTS) WHILE WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES ARE ELEVATED AT 15-20 KNOTS. THESE ELEVATED
WINDS ARE DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM FROM THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM
INTO A WEAK CYCLONE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO MAINLAND CHINA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

99W unleashing alot of rain for southern china...

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N
113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
LACK OF ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA, AND IS BEGINNING TO
UNDERGO LAND INDUCED EFFECTS. A RECENT 150156Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER WERE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BEING
ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY TO CONTINENTAL CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND
IMPACTING THE LLCC STRUCTURE, BUT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED WITHIN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT (LOW VWS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah we've had over 100mm of rain in parts of Hong Kong so far today. It was a little blustery yesterday but winds have died down today.

[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 152000

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
111.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.