ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[lester]

peak 40 kt FL wind and plenty of 35kt+ sfc winds *should* be enough for an upgrade.

[Hammy]

May end up being a special advisory or statement, or maybe an update, if they decide to upgrade. I've seen it often enough before.

[wxman57]

peak 40 kt FL wind and plenty of 35kt+ sfc winds *should* be enough for an upgrade.

I never trust the SFMR winds when they're higher than FL winds, but it does appear winds NE of the center are in the 30-35 kt range. Would like to see some 40-45kt FL winds before an upgrade. I'd prefer they not name it as I went a bit low in our office hurricane pool (only 16 named storms).

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191804
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 17 20130619
175500 2005N 09400W 9664 00388 //// +216 //// 132022 024 027 000 01
175530 2004N 09402W 9667 00385 //// +217 //// 128024 025 028 000 01
175600 2003N 09403W 9662 00390 0102 +217 +215 127026 026 030 001 01
175630 2002N 09404W 9664 00387 //// +215 //// 130025 026 030 001 01
175700 2001N 09405W 9664 00387 //// +215 //// 133021 025 029 001 05
175730 1959N 09407W 9663 00390 //// +214 //// 135020 022 029 000 01
175800 1958N 09408W 9664 00385 0101 +218 +218 136023 024 028 000 05
175830 1957N 09409W 9662 00387 0100 +218 +217 134023 024 028 001 05
175900 1956N 09410W 9665 00382 0099 +217 +216 135023 024 027 000 01
175930 1955N 09412W 9664 00385 0099 +217 +214 133025 026 028 000 01
180000 1954N 09413W 9670 00378 0097 +220 +212 134027 028 029 000 00
180030 1953N 09414W 9664 00383 0097 +222 +211 133026 028 029 000 00
180100 1952N 09415W 9664 00383 0098 +220 +215 133026 026 029 000 01
180130 1951N 09417W 9665 00382 0097 +220 +219 134025 027 030 000 01
180200 1950N 09418W 9664 00384 //// +219 //// 133027 028 029 002 01
180230 1949N 09419W 9668 00379 //// +218 //// 135027 028 029 000 01
180300 1948N 09420W 9660 00385 //// +219 //// 138028 030 034 002 01
180330 1947N 09422W 9670 00374 //// +217 //// 140030 031 034 002 01
180400 1946N 09423W 9662 00383 //// +213 //// 136032 033 035 002 05
180430 1945N 09424W 9664 00380 //// +204 //// 137033 034 039 006 01
$$
;

[NDG]

peak 40 kt FL wind and plenty of 35kt+ sfc winds *should* be enough for an upgrade.

I never trust the SFMR winds when they're higher than FL winds, but it does appear winds NE of the center are in the 30-35 kt range. Would like to see some 40-45kt FL winds before an upgrade. I'd prefer they not name it as I went a bit low in our office hurricane pool (only 16 named storms).

Ahhh, now I see why you have been so conservative with TD2 and with Andrea back then, lol

[Dave]

[cycloneye]

peak 40 kt FL wind and plenty of 35kt+ sfc winds *should* be enough for an upgrade.

I never trust the SFMR winds when they're higher than FL winds, but it does appear winds NE of the center are in the 30-35 kt range. Would like to see some 40-45kt FL winds before an upgrade. I'd prefer they not name it as I went a bit low in our office hurricane pool (only 16 named storms).

Ahhh, now I see why you have been so conservative with TD2 and with Andrea back then, lol

I remember him say by early August would be the first one.

[wxman57]

peak 40 kt FL wind and plenty of 35kt+ sfc winds *should* be enough for an upgrade.

I never trust the SFMR winds when they're higher than FL winds, but it does appear winds NE of the center are in the 30-35 kt range. Would like to see some 40-45kt FL winds before an upgrade. I'd prefer they not name it as I went a bit low in our office hurricane pool (only 16 named storms).

Ahhh, now I see why you have been so conservative with TD2 and with Andrea back then, lol

I did say very early in this thread that I thought there was an 80-90% chance it would be Barry in the BoC today. I'd rather win the office pool, though, as it pays $100.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191814
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20130619
180500 1944N 09425W 9665 00378 0097 +209 //// 135032 034 039 006 01
180530 1943N 09427W 9664 00378 //// +204 //// 138030 032 035 003 01
180600 1942N 09428W 9664 00376 //// +205 //// 142033 034 037 003 01
180630 1941N 09429W 9664 00376 0094 +212 //// 149034 035 038 003 05
180700 1940N 09430W 9665 00372 //// +212 //// 151032 033 036 001 01
180730 1939N 09432W 9665 00372 //// +215 //// 152032 033 036 000 05
180800 1939N 09433W 9661 00376 //// +216 //// 153028 031 034 000 01
180830 1938N 09434W 9665 00371 //// +221 //// 156022 025 033 001 01
180900 1937N 09436W 9664 00370 0082 +224 //// 156016 021 034 008 01
180930 1936N 09437W 9663 00370 0081 +228 //// 149020 020 034 007 01
181000 1936N 09439W 9666 00367 //// +221 //// 153020 021 032 005 01
181030 1935N 09440W 9664 00367 0082 +221 //// 154017 020 034 005 01
181100 1934N 09442W 9664 00366 0079 +226 //// 161015 016 032 006 01
181130 1934N 09443W 9664 00367 //// +225 //// 173012 015 029 000 01
181200 1933N 09445W 9664 00367 //// +224 //// 173009 012 024 002 01
181230 1933N 09446W 9660 00367 //// +222 //// 184007 010 023 002 01
181300 1932N 09448W 9664 00363 //// +220 //// 192006 007 022 005 01
181330 1932N 09449W 9663 00363 //// +225 //// 208007 008 016 001 05
181400 1932N 09451W 9663 00365 //// +219 //// 211007 007 017 000 01
181430 1933N 09453W 9663 00361 //// +221 //// 215007 008 016 000 05
$$
;

[wxman57]

Plane just found SW winds at 19.5N/94.9W. An indication that the center may be around 95W or a bit west of that.

[NDG]

Plane just found SW winds at 19.5N/94.9W. An indication that the center may be around 95W or a bit west of that.

Is kind of tough to figure out where the COC is with some missing estimated SLPs reports, but yes it looks like that it is a bit closer to 95W than I thought and little further south too.

[Dave]

[CrazyC83]

The data does seem so inconclusive. I'd be tempted to leave it at 30 kt for now...

[Dave]

a 2nd delayed set...

Could I get someone to take over hdobs at or before 3 pm edt?

hdobs 20 is in, missing #19 so far

[Dave]

Missing #19

000
URNT15 KNHC 191839
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20130619
182500 1925N 09517W 9662 00365 //// +211 //// 303040 041 035 000 01
182530 1924N 09518W 9666 00363 //// +214 //// 305040 041 034 001 05
182600 1923N 09519W 9666 00363 0078 +213 //// 305040 040 034 000 01
182630 1922N 09520W 9663 00367 0078 +219 +216 308038 040 034 000 00
182700 1921N 09522W 9664 00366 0078 +223 +216 310037 038 034 000 00
182730 1920N 09523W 9663 00370 0080 +225 +214 310037 038 037 000 00
182800 1919N 09524W 9665 00368 0081 +224 +211 310037 038 037 000 00
182830 1917N 09525W 9664 00372 0083 +221 +210 310037 038 037 000 00
182900 1916N 09526W 9662 00374 0086 +215 +212 313037 038 037 000 05
182930 1915N 09527W 9666 00373 0087 +219 +209 314037 038 036 000 00
183000 1914N 09528W 9664 00376 0090 +215 +207 315036 037 036 001 00
183030 1913N 09529W 9663 00378 0090 +218 +206 318035 036 037 000 00
183100 1912N 09530W 9664 00377 0090 +220 +206 322036 036 038 001 00
183130 1911N 09532W 9664 00378 0091 +225 +205 323033 036 037 001 00
183200 1909N 09533W 9664 00378 0091 +226 +205 325033 033 036 000 00
183230 1908N 09534W 9663 00379 0091 +230 +201 329032 033 036 000 00
183300 1907N 09535W 9666 00378 0091 +232 +200 329034 034 036 000 00
183330 1906N 09536W 9663 00379 0090 +234 +205 337032 034 035 000 00
183400 1905N 09537W 9664 00379 0091 +238 +199 338035 036 036 000 00
183430 1903N 09539W 9662 00380 0090 +240 +201 339034 035 035 000 00
$$
;

[Alyono]

Unflagged

174200 2036N 09334W 9668 00391 0120 +196 +196 154030 032 057 034 00
174230 2034N 09335W 9662 00398 0120 +198 +198 146028 031 057 034 00

Those are so clearly bogus

[Dave]

[lester]

Unflagged

174200 2036N 09334W 9668 00391 0120 +196 +196 154030 032 057 034 00
174230 2034N 09335W 9662 00398 0120 +198 +198 146028 031 057 034 00

Those are so clearly bogus

high rain rate, probably rain-contaminated if i'm reading it right

[Aric Dunn]

have all seen this page yet ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/02L.html