WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Meow]

South of Guam

[Meow]

The potential is now Medium, only one hour after formation.

Code: Select all

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162334Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[dexterlabio]

cool cool... i'm interested to see how the GFS 06z run goes this afternoon. The latest run doesn't show much about this and still focuses on future Leepi and the other potential system in South China Sea.

[mrbagyo]

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[vrif]

ABPW10 PGTW 170600

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 143.1E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF GUAM.
ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH WEAKLY DEFINED,
BANDING CONVECTION. A 170030Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[stormstrike]

models are totally ignoring this..



to think this has MEDIUM chance of development already by JTWC..

and as of this writing, it has already max winds of 20kts..



seems interesting..

[RobWESTPACWX]

HMMM this is interesting.

[stormstrike]

93W is still not picked up by GFS on their latest run





maybe it's because of the high shear on its path..

[dexterlabio]

^that's what makes it even more interesting, the lack of model support. .




and it could be reasonable because the convection started waning, but you can still see the spin...

[dexterlabio]

^not sure about the waning convection though...could just be a result of Diurnal Max/Min or something. .

[euro6208]

convection is decreasing but you can see it's well definied circulation...things could get interesting...

[stormstrike]

yeah! look at that circulation! as the convection wanes, the spin gets clearer! i'm quite amazed actually...

[dexterlabio]

that swirl needs to be sustained by some moisture surrounding it.. I'll be waiting til the convection regenerates. . or else this could bid farewell soon. lol. busy days of monitoring ahead.

[Meow]

that swirl needs to be sustained by some moisture surrounding it.. I'll be waiting til the convection regenerates. . or else this could bid farewell soon. lol. busy days of monitoring ahead.

At such low latitudes, a disturbance’s LLCC cannot maintain so long.

[dexterlabio]

^yeah so it better fire up something or it'll be gone. maybe it will dissipate as fast as it developed.

[Meow]

^yeah so it better fire up something or it'll be gone. maybe it will dissipate as fast as it developed.

Yes, it died.