EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201306201336
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2013, DB, O, 2013062012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942013
EP, 94, 2013062012, , BEST, 0, 112N, 949W, 20, 0, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

This is the area that all models develop.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 20 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

I believe shear is suppose to calm down tonight, so 94E should get going tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

EP, 94, 2013062100, , BEST, 0, 121N, 979W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like I was correct.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

EP, 94, 2013062118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1005W, 25, 1007, LO

[cycloneye]

If SHIP is right,94E becomes the second Hurricane of 2013 EPAC season.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130621 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130621 1800 130622 0600 130622 1800 130623 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 100.3W 12.2N 101.5W 12.1N 102.6W 12.0N 103.6W
BAMD 12.0N 100.3W 11.9N 101.4W 11.6N 102.5W 11.4N 103.4W
BAMM 12.0N 100.3W 11.8N 101.5W 11.4N 102.7W 11.0N 103.6W
LBAR 12.0N 100.3W 12.1N 101.8W 11.9N 103.5W 11.5N 105.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 36KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130623 1800 130624 1800 130625 1800 130626 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 104.6W 15.0N 106.9W 18.1N 111.0W 18.2N 116.0W
BAMD 11.3N 104.4W 12.4N 106.5W 14.6N 108.4W 17.3N 110.7W
BAMM 10.9N 104.5W 12.4N 105.5W 16.0N 106.7W 19.8N 109.8W
LBAR 11.3N 107.3W 12.2N 111.0W 15.2N 116.0W 16.1N 121.3W
SHIP 53KTS 69KTS 74KTS 69KTS
DSHP 53KTS 69KTS 74KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 100.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 98.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 96.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Kingarabian]

Getting it's act together quickly.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Up to 50% Chance

Invest 94E

[cycloneye]

94E looks like a good candidate to turn into the second Hurricane of the 2013 EPAC season if it gets all the favorable factors in it's favor.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THERE ARE TWO LOW PRES ANALYZED CURRENTLY
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE AT 11N100W AND ANOTHER AT
12N117W. BOTH OF THESE LOW PRES AREAS PRESENTED WELL ON ASCAT
DATA FROM 1646 UTC. THE WESTERNMOST LOW PRES DEVELOPED IN PART
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT HAS SINCE BECOME A SHARPLY
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 19N BETWEEN 105W AND
120W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW PRES IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE INTERACTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH...AS WELL AS RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ARE PULSING AROUND EACH LOW PRES AREA...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS FAVORING THE EASTERNMOST
LOW.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERNMOST LOW PRES AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE
OUTLIER INDICATING THAT BOTH LOW PRES AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...WHEREAS ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE THE EASTERMOST DEVELOPING AT THE EXPENSE OF THE WESTERN
LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE BALANCED CONSENSUS
APPROACH AND GRADUALLY MERGES THE WESTERNMOST LOW INTO THE
EASTERN LOW THROUGH MON. THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Still a little disorganized though I think this will become a hurricane, possibly a major.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 21 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Some models make 94E a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Model Guidance.

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SAT JUN 22 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942013) 20130622 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130622 0000 130622 1200 130623 0000 130623 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 101.2W 12.3N 102.3W 12.4N 103.3W 12.6N 104.5W
BAMD 12.1N 101.2W 11.9N 102.3W 11.7N 103.3W 11.5N 104.3W
BAMM 12.1N 101.2W 12.2N 102.4W 12.2N 103.4W 12.3N 104.4W
LBAR 12.1N 101.2W 12.0N 102.8W 11.7N 104.5W 11.3N 106.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130624 0000 130625 0000 130626 0000 130627 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 105.8W 16.5N 109.8W 17.1N 114.3W 17.6N 114.7W
BAMD 11.7N 105.3W 13.3N 107.9W 15.9N 111.0W 18.5N 114.7W
BAMM 12.9N 105.6W 15.3N 108.8W 17.3N 112.3W 19.0N 115.7W
LBAR 11.1N 108.3W 12.3N 112.3W 14.4N 117.7W 16.3N 122.4W
SHIP 67KTS 80KTS 81KTS 71KTS
DSHP 67KTS 80KTS 81KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 101.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 99.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 97.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The 00z guidance in the form of graphic.

[Macrocane]

GFS, CMC, FIM and to a lesser extent UKMET make a Fujiwhara with 94E and 95E, it would be great they verify.

[brunota2003]

Hm, interesting. According to the SHIP/DSHP, this system will be on the verge of RI (25 knot increase between 24 and 48 hrs). RI is 30 knots in 24 hours.