EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

Four-E?

[Yellow Evan]

Four-E?

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/4185/inmi.jpg

Nah, that's Three-E

[cycloneye]

There is a glitch at NRL but they are trying to fix it.

[cycloneye]

Impressive outflow that will help with intensification once it gets going with a CDO feature. These large WPAC type systems take some time to organize.

[Senobia]

Where can we find models for EPAC storms with tracks/likely effects/etc. for Hawaii?

[cycloneye]

Where can we find models for EPAC storms with tracks/likely effects/etc. for Hawaii?

I think this is a good site for what you are asking.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/

[NDG]

TD 3 only has about 72-84 hrs to take advantage of good conditions before moving into cooler waters and easterly shear picks up as indicated by the GFS.
I agree with the NHC of barely becoming a Cat 1 Hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks quite large even for East Pacific storm.

[Kingarabian]

Where can we find models for EPAC storms with tracks/likely effects/etc. for Hawaii?

I really doubt this makes it past 140W. Anywho, even storms that cross 140W get ripped apart to shreds from the Great Hawaiian Shear!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

I have not seen a storm this large since Rick in 2009.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT...
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS
PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT
FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY ABOUT 120 H.

THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A
BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ntxw]

[greenkat]

This has got to be the largest TD I've ever seen...

[AJC3]

This has got to be the largest TD I've ever seen...

From what I can recall seeing in real-time, 2001's UTOR in the WPAC was absolutely massive as both a TD and TS.

Keep in mind the domain of this image is about 14 deg x 14 deg (roughly 840 mi x 840 mi, or >700,000 sq mi) and doesn't capture the full areal extent of this beast.

[cycloneye]

Despite the favorable conditions, the majority of the intensity models are calling for TD 03E to reach high-end tropical storm strength by the next couple of days likely due to the storm's large size that would slow the intensification process. However, if the inner core is established by 24-36 hours, then a more rapid phase of strengthening is likely and would be stronger than what most of the dynamical models are forecasting.

[Yellow Evan]

Largest EPAC storm ever is Hilary 05 (no size records were kept pre-1988, though I know Miriam 82, and Rick/Pauline 85 were large when they went ET). But, this storm reminds me of Kathleen 76 in its large size during origin.

[Hurricanehink]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/03E.html - T2.5 now. Should see upgrade at 11 EDT, IMO.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

2013062400, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1041W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

...DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 104.4W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER
FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
FAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY
HINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A
BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL
SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM. BY 72
HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE
WEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

CENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 315/6. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS.
MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

I'd be very surprised if we were nameless at 9z.