EPAC: INVEST 95E

[supercane4867]

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invest_ep952013.invest
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201306211737
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013062118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952013
EP, 95, 2013062118, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1138W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

Floater up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 95E

[Yellow Evan]

Looks decent. I wonder if it will beat out 94E.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

and how is this even an invest?

[supercane4867]

and how is this even an invest?

There is a decent circulation

[Yellow Evan]

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

and how is this even an invest?

Got really good model support.

[Yellow Evan]

May not form at all:

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE IN A
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.

[MGC]

Looks close to a TD to me.....MGC

[Kingarabian]

Looks close to a TD to me.....MGC

It has a very nice spin and outflow. But it needs convection.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to a TD to me.....MGC

It has a very nice spin and outflow. But it needs convection.

Agreed. I don't think it will acquire such convection in time though.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to a TD to me.....MGC

It has a very nice spin and outflow. But it needs convection.

Agreed. I don't think it will acquire such convection in time though.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As soon as I say that, convection forms

[Yellow Evan]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES LITTLE.

[NDG]

This invest is becoming less and less impressive, as if 94E is stealing its moisture.

[Yellow Evan]

I think this invest is toast.

[cycloneye]

Already moving SE towards TD Three-E.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.