WPAC: INVEST 97W

[jaguarjace]

9.2N 158.2E
North of Pohnpei.

[ManilaTC]

Wow, how clearly defined an LLCC can you get.

[mrbagyo]

this naked invest needs some cloth of convection.

[ManilaTC]

tracking WSW now... a little burst to cover it is being seen hehe...

Bold!

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 153.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A
DEFINED BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, DISSIPATING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT. OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, MSI SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL
BUT HAS THUS FAR RETAINED AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC. A 260348Z AMSU
IMAGE INDICATES NO SUBSTANTIVE EVIDENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THE 26/00Z CHUUK SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE 900 MB WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW (SFC TO 350 MB) OVERLAYED WITH
WESTERLY FLOW (350 TO 100 MB), CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT AND VERIFYING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) NEAR 35 KNOTS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK INDICATE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (05-10
KNOTS) WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.2 MB. A
252349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION, AND WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WESTERLY VWS AND POOR
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

convection has once again blossomed...