WPAC: RUMBIA - Tropical Storm

[vrif]

Yangjiang Radar Loop


Haikou radar is seeing the eye now.

[mrbagyo]

WTPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 014
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.2N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 23.4N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 112.0E.
TYPHOON 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) INDICATES THAT TY 06W UNDERWENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (A 25 KNOT INCREASE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 65
KNOTS) WITH A PEAK IN ORGANIZATION AROUND 01/0330-0400Z; A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0400Z INDICATED A T4.0 (65 KNOTS) WITH
A SMALL 10-NM EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 010411Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWED A NEAR-
COMPLETE, 50-NM DIAMETER EYEWALL WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. OVER THE PAST TWO
HOURS, MSI INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND AND SHOWS AN ERODING
EYE AND EYEWALL OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM VERIFY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VWS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS, THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM WAS
ABLE TO BRIEFLY COCOON ITSELF DUE TO OVERALL FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. TY 06W CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE
RI, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS SHIFTED ACCORDINGLY UNTIL LANDFALL AFTER TAU
12.
B. TY 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC MODELS WITH A 30-NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 12. THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY AFTER LANDFALL
BUT REMAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. TY 06W HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS
FAST APPROACHING HAINAN ISLAND AND INCREASING VWS, SO THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 36 OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE MESOSCALE MODELS, HWRF AND GFDN,
NAILED THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 65 KNOTS BUT NOW SUPPORT THE
WEAKENING TREND IN ADDITION TO ALL THE OTHER RELIABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

This is extremely sad, two families lost several loved ones, many of them young children due to this storm.

[euro6208]

Good call from JTWC upgrading rumbia to a typhoon. The peak intensity is likely higher based on a very well defined eye seen on radar surrounded by deep convection.

Peak intensity: 90 knots







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

Typhoon Rumbia helping to up our ACE now at 3.875.

[StormingB81]

I miss watching these WPAC storms...I mean I do just not as often...they always seem to throw a curveball but never surprise because you know they are going to do soemthing along the road

[vrif]

Here is the latest ASCAT from 2.5 hours ago. A direct pass over the eye.
ASCAT 0701 1327Z

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 110.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 110.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.0N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 25.8N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 109.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM
EASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM HAIKOU, CHINA, SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME
LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (25-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
LAND AND FURTHER INCREASING VWS ERODE THE SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

rumbia battering southern china...

[vrif]

The current radar loop