EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

This storm is like Irwin 11. It won't die.

[Cyclenall]

I think Dallia won't last much longer tbh.

As if anyone thought it would last much longer? This was suppose to be dead 3 days ago.

This is certainly one of the more surprising things to occur in the Epac this season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST
DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS
SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE
DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION
REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND
IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT.

DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-
SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING
EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY
LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

The last advisory written.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013

DALILA LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH A
SMALL PATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEET THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...DALILA HAS NOT
PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...DALILA
IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM
AROUND 0430 UTC.

THE REMNANT LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
EASTWARD LATER TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT GETS
DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI