EPAC: DALILA - Post-Tropical

[sammy126]

Thanks, last year at this time they were rolling off of Africa.

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks, last year at this time they were rolling off of Africa.

No, they were not. Check Wikipedia again.

Anyway, back to this storm. Dallia is not looking good right now, I don't think it will become a major.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 301731
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...DALILA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 103.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE.
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.2 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 04, 2013063018, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1035W, 35, 1003, TS

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 103.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE.
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

ALTHOUGH SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS CONDUCIVE TO
INTENSIFICATION...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE
EARLIER TODAY...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. A RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS OF MARGINAL TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35
KT. SINCE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.

EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THANKS TO THE TIMELY
ASCAT OVERPASS...A GOOD CENTER FIX WAS OBTAINED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NEAR 330/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
EVENTUALLY WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

The question about Dalila is why she hasn't got more stronger so far as moist air surrounds the area. Maybe some unexpected shear may be the cause.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The question about Dalila is why she hasn't got more stronger so far as moist air surrounds the area. Maybe some unexpected shear may be the cause.

It's the result of a lack of convergence. If a storm doesn't have convergence, air isn't piling. If the air isn't piling, it's not rising. If air isn't rising, neither is the latent heat. Latent heat produces an area of high pressure aloft, which subsequently causes the air to diverge and sink, evacuating mass. Removal of pressure, the weight of the air, in the upper levels causes air to rush to fill the void, lowering surface pressures.

[cycloneye]

...DALILA FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

The question about Dalila is why she hasn't got more stronger so far as moist air surrounds the area. Maybe some unexpected shear may be the cause.

It's the result of a lack of convergence. If a storm doesn't have convergence, air isn't piling. If the air isn't piling, it's not rising. If air isn't rising, neither is the latent heat. Latent heat produces an area of high pressure aloft, which subsequently causes the air to diverge and sink, evacuating mass. Removal of pressure, the weight of the air, in the upper levels causes air to rush to fill the void, lowering surface pressures.

Good point about the convergence. But it looks like she is getting better organized now.

[Yellow Evan]

The question about Dalila is why she hasn't got more stronger so far as moist air surrounds the area. Maybe some unexpected shear may be the cause.

It's the result of a lack of convergence. If a storm doesn't have convergence, air isn't piling. If the air isn't piling, it's not rising. If air isn't rising, neither is the latent heat. Latent heat produces an area of high pressure aloft, which subsequently causes the air to diverge and sink, evacuating mass. Removal of pressure, the weight of the air, in the upper levels causes air to rush to fill the void, lowering surface pressures.

Good point about the convergence. But it looks like she is getting better organized now.

As soon as you say why it's not strengthening, it starts to intensify. It could be bad for MX if it keeps up, hopefully it won't be like Babara and Cosme.

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to reach Hurricane intensity.


TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF DALILA HAS IMPROVED. IN
FACT...37 GHZ AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM A 30/1857Z TRMM OVERPASS
REVEALED THAT A 70 PERCENT CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYEWALL HAD
DEVELOPED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...30 KT...AND 47 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND UW-CIMSS ADT...RESPECTIVELY.

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS BEEN
WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN MOTION OF 315/09 KT. THE MASSIVE HEAT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ALSO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
STAGNANT STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS TAKING DALILA
SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE GFS
AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE THE
PAST FEW CYCLES...KEEP DALILA MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD
DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A ROBUST TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE...AND THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.

ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AT ONLY 3 KT...THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FROM A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND
SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE
HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MORE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...WHICH
COULD BE A SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR KICKS IN.
DALILA IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT IT IS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND
DOWN. SO FOR NOW...A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION UNTIL A SOLID INTENSIFICATION SIGNAL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW SHOWS DALILA REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.8N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.7N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 18.9N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 010231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF DALILA BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...BUT DALILA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

(because it's threatening land)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED
BANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL
HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
NEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT
DALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND
SLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS
FOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY TO OCCUR.

DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE
SOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND
SUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

IF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY
MUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO
LONGER BE REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

Live IR Loop.

And I'm excited by the fact these loops no longer use Java!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live Goes West IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 011130
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DALILA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
500 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

...DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 105.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LA FORTUNA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO
CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. DALILA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...BUT DALILA COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY AND TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...DALILA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013

A 0949 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED THAT THE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A RAINBAND NOW WRAPS MOST OF THE
WAY AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED...AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY TO 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WITHIN A
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND
DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY. AFTER
THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT
DALILA WILL ENCOUNTER A LAYER OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY.

MICROWAVE AND IR-BASED CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DALILA CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 310/8. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AFTER TWO DAYS...EXEMPLIFIED BY THE GFS AND
ECMWF FORECASTS. THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DEEPER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SHALLOW VORTEX
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IN LINE
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND CALLS
FOR A STEADY WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 17.8N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.2N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.6N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.8N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.9N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[jaguarjace]

Here's a floater:

[greenkat]

Looks very organized for a 60 mph storm. Dalila doesn't have an eye yet, but it sure is trying!

[Kingarabian]